- Northern Illinois 0-1 · Horizon 0-0, 8th · L1
- Tulsa 1-0 · American 0-0, 10th · W1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TLSA -17.1 |
| Total | n/a | 154.6 |
| Moneyline | n/a | NIU +1606 TLSA -1606 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- TLSA 85, NIU 68
- 8 in 10 games
- TLSA by 3 to TLSA by 31
Advantages Why Tulsa can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Tulsa about 7.0 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Tulsa 32nd (+13.5), Northern Illinois 349th (-17.6) of 365.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to Tulsa in our ratings.
- Tulsa's offense (119.8 points per 100 possessions, 15th in Division I) meets a Northern Illinois defense that ranks 320th.
- Team matchup: where Tulsa can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (30th of 365) meets the Northern Illinois shooting defense (345th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (263rd of 365) meets the Northern Illinois ball security (358th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, David Green (Tulsa: 15.9 pts, 4.6 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 11.4) has the edge on Jao Ituka (Northern Illinois: 6.9 pts, 2.5 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 4.7).
- Simulation: Tulsa win 4,705 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Tulsa may not
- Weak spot: Tulsa rank 263rd of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
- Team matchup: Northern Illinois have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Tulsa on paper, but Jao Ituka (6.9 pts, 2.5 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 4.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Northern Illinois win 295 of 5,000 simulations (6%). A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
NIU Northern Illinois
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
TLSA Tulsa
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| NIU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-0 |
| -17.6 349 | Net rating | +13.5 32 |
| 97.2 341 | Offensive rating | 119.8 15 |
| 114.8 320 | Defensive rating | 106.3 120 |
| +0.1 156 | Strength of schedule | +0.7 108 |
| 48.0% 311 | Effective FG% | 55.4% 30 |
| 56.0% 345 | Opponent eFG% | 49.5% 86 |
| 21.4 358 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 108 |
| 30.3% 189 | Offensive rebound % | 32.8% 95 |
| 31.5% 300 | 3-point % | 38.5% 9 |
| 69.0 181 | Pace | 70.1 117 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
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