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UMBC

UMBC @ Marist

NCAAB · · America East-Metro Challenge · McCann Arena

MRST

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MRSTMarist Red Foxes
65% to win
ModelUMBC 35%MRST 65%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMRST -4.1
Totaln/a140.7
Moneylinen/aUMBC +183
MRST -183 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
MRST 77, UMBC 73
8 in 10 games
UMBC by 10 to MRST by 17
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Marist can win

  1. Home court: Marist play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Marist 33rd (19.6), UMBC 291st (15.0) of 365.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Marist about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Strength: Marist rank 4th of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (95.9).
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Marist. The nearest thing to one: their ball pressure (33rd of 365) meets the UMBC ball security (25th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Marist. The closest: best player against best player, DJ Armstrong Jr. (UMBC: 13.3 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 10.3) is about even with Elijah Lewis (Marist: 12.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 9.6).
  7. Simulation: Marist win 3,235 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Marist may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to UMBC in our ratings.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): UMBC 25th (14.1), Marist 217th (17.2) of 365.
  3. Three-point shooting: UMBC 78th (35.6%), Marist 250th (32.6%) of 365.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Marist lose by 10 or more.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Marist may not get to use. Their ball pressure (33rd of 365) meets the UMBC ball security (25th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Josh Odunowo (UMBC: 8.4 pts, 5.2 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 6.9) has the edge on Jaden Daughtry (Marist: 5.3 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 5.0).
  7. Upset odds: UMBC win 1,765 of 5,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

UMBC UMBC

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

MRST Marist

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

UMBCMRST
0-1Record0-1
+9.0 64Net rating+6.9 80
111.6 109Offensive rating102.7 287
102.6 53Defensive rating95.9 4
-1.5 334Strength of schedule-1.8 354
53.3% 88Effective FG%49.2% 277
49.3% 76Opponent eFG%45.8% 9
14.1 25Turnovers per 10017.2 217
25.1% 339Offensive rebound %28.9% 235
35.6% 783-point %32.6% 250
67.2 275Pace66.9 286

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • UMBC 73 @ Marist 76Dec 21, 2024
  • Marist 65 @ UMBC 59Nov 11, 2023

What if?

UMBC35%
65%Marist

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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