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UML

UMass Lowell @ Merrimack

NCAAB · · America East-Metro Challenge · Lawler Arena

MRMK

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MRMKMerrimack Warriors
79% to win
ModelUML 21%MRMK 79%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMRMK -8.7
Totaln/a141.3
Moneylinen/aUML +373
MRMK -373 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
MRMK 80, UML 71
8 in 10 games
UML by 5 to MRMK by 23
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Merrimack can win

  1. Home court: Merrimack play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Merrimack 138th (+2.5), UMass Lowell 286th (-8.3) of 365.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Merrimack about 2.4 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Merrimack 56th (14.9), UMass Lowell 270th (18.0) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where Merrimack can take advantage. Their ball pressure (16th of 365) meets the UMass Lowell ball security (270th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Merrimack, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Tye Dorset (11.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 8.9) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Merrimack win 3,940 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Merrimack may not

  1. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): UMass Lowell 125th (70.6%), Merrimack 364th (59.9%) of 365.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Merrimack lose by 5 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Merrimack rank 364th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (59.9%).
  4. Weak spot: Merrimack rank 338th of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (25.1%).
  5. Team matchup: where UMass Lowell can push back. Their offensive rebounding (96th of 365) meets the Merrimack defensive rebounding (364th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Austin Green (UMass Lowell: 13.2 pts, 8.0 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 11.7) has the edge on Tye Dorset (Merrimack: 11.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 8.9).
  7. Upset odds: UMass Lowell win 1,060 of 5,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Who's out

UML UMass Lowell

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

MRMK Merrimack

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

UMLMRMK
0-0Record0-1
-8.3 286Net rating+2.5 138
104.1 266Offensive rating105.9 225
112.4 279Defensive rating103.4 64
-0.9 290Strength of schedule-1.1 300
49.8% 247Effective FG%48.9% 293
53.5% 283Opponent eFG%46.8% 18
18.0 270Turnovers per 10014.9 56
32.7% 96Offensive rebound %25.1% 338
32.2% 2653-point %32.6% 249
68.9 188Pace64.2 358

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Merrimack 74 @ UMass Lowell 81Nov 25, 2024
  • UMass Lowell 68 @ Merrimack 74Dec 2, 2023
  • Merrimack 51 @ UMass Lowell 77Nov 30, 2022
  • UMass Lowell 61 @ Merrimack 57Dec 4, 2021
  • Merrimack 60 @ UMass Lowell 58Nov 16, 2019

What if?

UMass Lowell21%
79%Merrimack

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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