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UNH

New Hampshire @ Rider

NCAAB · · America East-Metro Challenge · Alumni Gymnasium (Rider)

RID

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UNHNew Hampshire Wildcats
61% to win
ModelUNH 61%RID 39%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUNH -3.1
Totaln/a143.6
Moneylinen/aUNH -157
RID +157 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
RID 74, UNH 77
8 in 10 games
UNH by 17 to RID by 11
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why New Hampshire can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated New Hampshire about 6.1 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to New Hampshire in our ratings.
  3. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): New Hampshire 28th (73.2%), Rider 293rd (67.2%) of 365.
  4. Strength: New Hampshire rank 28th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.2%).
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors New Hampshire. The nearest thing to one: their ball pressure (215th of 365) meets the Rider ball security (210th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors New Hampshire. The closest: best player against best player, Zion Cruz (Rider: 13.8 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 7.0) is about even with John Squire (New Hampshire: 6.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 6.4).
  7. Simulation: New Hampshire win 3,055 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why New Hampshire may not

  1. Home court: Rider play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rider 115th (32.3%), New Hampshire 330th (25.6%) of 365.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations New Hampshire lose by 11 or more.
  4. Weak spot: New Hampshire rank 349th of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
  5. Team matchup: Rider have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean New Hampshire on paper, but Zion Cruz (13.8 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 7.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Rider win 1,945 of 5,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

UNH New Hampshire

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

RID Rider

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

UNHRID
1-0Record0-1
-13.4 332Net rating-22.7 357
96.5 347Offensive rating94.6 355
110.0 225Defensive rating117.3 344
-0.6 237Strength of schedule-0.7 266
46.5% 343Effective FG%42.6% 364
53.3% 279Opponent eFG%55.3% 335
16.5 169Turnovers per 10017.1 210
25.6% 330Offensive rebound %32.3% 115
30.4% 3333-point %27.7% 364
68.8 197Pace66.0 316

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

New Hampshire61%
39%Rider

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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