- Howard 0-1 · MEAC 0-0, 6th · L1
- Alcorn State 0-1 · SWAC 0-0, 5th · L1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOW -11.8 |
| Total | n/a | 148.2 |
| Moneyline | n/a | HOW -592 ALCN +592 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- ALCN 69, HOW 81
- 8 in 10 games
- HOW by 26 to ALCN by 3
Advantages Why Howard can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Howard about 11.9 points stronger over recent games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to Howard in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Howard 72nd (+8.2), Alcorn State 355th (-20.2) of 365.
- Point differential per game: Howard 69th (+5.7), Alcorn State 355th (-14.1) of 365.
- Team matchup: where Howard can take advantage. Their ball pressure (12th of 365) meets the Alcorn State ball security (347th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (25th of 365) meets the Alcorn State defensive rebounding (351st): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Bryce Harris (Howard: 17.3 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.5 ast, Game Score 14.4) has the edge on Shane Lancaster (Alcorn State: 10.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 7.8).
- Simulation: Howard win 4,275 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Howard may not
- Home court: Alcorn State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Howard lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: Howard rank 326th of 365 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (19.2).
- Weak spot: Howard rank 314th of 365 in strength of schedule (-1.3).
- Team matchup: where Alcorn State can push back. Their ball pressure (99th of 365) meets the Howard ball security (326th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Howard on paper, but Shane Lancaster (10.8 pts, 2.3 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 7.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Alcorn State win 725 of 5,000 simulations (15%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Who's out
HOW Howard
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
ALCN Alcorn State
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| HOW | ALCN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| +8.2 72 | Net rating | -20.2 355 |
| 108.2 180 | Offensive rating | 95.4 353 |
| 100.1 27 | Defensive rating | 115.6 330 |
| -1.3 314 | Strength of schedule | -1.0 292 |
| 50.5% 215 | Effective FG% | 47.6% 323 |
| 48.5% 48 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 334 |
| 19.2 326 | Turnovers per 100 | 20.0 347 |
| 36.1% 25 | Offensive rebound % | 27.1% 294 |
| 35.4% 95 | 3-point % | 33.6% 190 |
| 69.4 154 | Pace | 69.9 124 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
- Alcorn State 64 @ Howard 72Nov 13, 2025
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