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TOL

Toledo @ #6 Michigan State

NCAAB · · Breslin Center

MSU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MSUMichigan State Spartans
92% to win
ModelTOL 8%MSU 92%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 92% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMSU -15.1
Totaln/a152
Moneylinen/aTOL +1117
MSU -1117 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
MSU 83, TOL 68
8 in 10 games
MSU by 1 to MSU by 29
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Michigan State can win

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Michigan State about 7.8 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Michigan State's offense (117.5 points per 100 possessions, 36th in Division I) meets a Toledo defense that ranks 251st.
  3. Home court: Michigan State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  4. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Michigan State 16th (+16.6), Toledo 125th (+3.2) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: where Michigan State can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (6th of 365) meets the Toledo defensive rebounding (314th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (63rd of 365) meets the Toledo shooting defense (300th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State: 15.2 pts, 2.4 reb, 9.4 ast, Game Score 14.9) has the edge on Sean Craig (Toledo: 11.6 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 10.3).
  7. Simulation: Michigan State win 4,590 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Michigan State may not

  1. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Toledo 57th (14.9), Michigan State 215th (17.2) of 365.
  2. Weak spot: Michigan State rank 286th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.1).
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  4. Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  5. Team matchup: where Toledo can push back. Their ball pressure (114th of 365) meets the Michigan State ball security (215th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Michigan State on paper, but Sean Craig (11.6 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 10.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Toledo win 410 of 5,000 simulations (8%). A 92% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

TOL Toledo

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

MSU Michigan State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

TOLMSU
0-1Record1-0
+3.2 125Net rating+16.6 16
114.1 68Offensive rating117.5 36
110.9 251Defensive rating100.9 35
+0.6 115Strength of schedule+2.8 11
54.1% 62Effective FG%54.1% 63
54.0% 300Opponent eFG%48.7% 52
14.9 57Turnovers per 10017.2 215
29.7% 215Offensive rebound %38.1% 6
36.4% 393-point %36.4% 40
69.6 140Pace67.5 259

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 3 meetings

  • Toledo 69 @ Michigan State 92Dec 16, 2025
  • Toledo 68 @ Michigan State 81Dec 4, 2021
  • Toledo 62 @ Michigan State 75Nov 20, 2009

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Toledo8%
92%Michigan State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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