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GAST

Georgia State @ Charlotte

NCAAB · · Halton Arena

CLT

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
CLTCharlotte 49ers
74% to win
ModelGAST 26%CLT 74%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetCLT -7.4
Totaln/a146
Moneylinen/aGAST +286
CLT -286 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
CLT 79, GAST 71
8 in 10 games
GAST by 7 to CLT by 21
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Charlotte can win

  1. Home court: Charlotte play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Charlotte 200th (-1.5), Georgia State 309th (-9.9) of 365.
  3. Three-point shooting: Charlotte 86th (35.6%), Georgia State 315th (31.2%) of 365.
  4. Charlotte's offense (111.7 points per 100 possessions, 108th in Division I) meets a Georgia State defense that ranks 201st.
  5. Team matchup: where Charlotte can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (66th of 365) meets the Georgia State defensive rebounding (313th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (75th of 365) meets the Georgia State shooting defense (146th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Arden Conyers (Charlotte: 7.4 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 4.4) has the edge on James Cooper (Georgia State: 1.0 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.2 ast, Game Score 0.6).
  7. Simulation: Charlotte win 3,705 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Charlotte may not

  1. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Georgia State 125th (15.9), Charlotte 281st (18.3) of 365.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Charlotte lose by 7 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Charlotte rank 345th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.5).
  4. Weak spot: Charlotte rank 293rd of 365 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (113.2).
  5. Team matchup: where Georgia State can push back. Their ball pressure (193rd of 365) meets the Charlotte ball security (281st), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jelani Hamilton (Georgia State: 17.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 12.6) has the edge on Dezayne Mingo (Charlotte: 12.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.6 ast, Game Score 9.9).
  7. Upset odds: Georgia State win 1,295 of 5,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

GAST Georgia State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

CLT Charlotte

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

GASTCLT
0-1Record1-0
-9.9 309Net rating-1.5 200
99.2 330Offensive rating111.7 108
109.2 201Defensive rating113.2 293
-0.2 188Strength of schedule+0.4 129
44.5% 360Effective FG%53.6% 75
50.8% 146Opponent eFG%50.9% 150
15.9 125Turnovers per 10018.3 281
27.4% 284Offensive rebound %34.1% 66
31.2% 3153-point %35.6% 86
69.1 174Pace65.5 335

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 4 meetings

  • Charlotte 77 @ Georgia State 63Dec 14, 2024
  • Georgia State 57 @ Charlotte 65Nov 25, 2023
  • Georgia State 76 @ Charlotte 65Dec 4, 2020
  • Charlotte 78 @ Georgia State 81Nov 27, 2019

What if?

Georgia State26%
74%Charlotte

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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