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JXST

Jacksonville State @ South Alabama

NCAAB · · Mitchell Center

USA

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
USASouth Alabama Jaguars
61% to win
ModelJXST 39%USA 61%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUSA -3.5
Totaln/a143.2
Moneylinen/aJXST +157
USA -157 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks usually post college basketball lines the day before; a few small-conference games get one only on game day or not at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
USA 77, JXST 74
8 in 10 games
JXST by 11 to USA by 17
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why South Alabama can win

  1. Home court: South Alabama play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): South Alabama 7th (13.0), Jacksonville State 198th (17.0) of 365.
  3. History: South Alabama won 4 of the last 5 meetings (college rosters turn over, so this says little).
  4. Strength: South Alabama rank 7th of 365 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (13.0).
  5. Team matchup: where South Alabama can take advantage. Their ball pressure (91st of 365) meets the Jacksonville State ball security (198th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors South Alabama. The closest: best player against best player, Mostapha El Moutaouakkil (Jacksonville State: 19.5 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 11.9) is about even with Adam Olsen (South Alabama: 16.7 pts, 4.1 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 11.4).
  7. Simulation: South Alabama win 3,060 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why South Alabama may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Jacksonville State about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations South Alabama lose by 11 or more.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Jacksonville State in our ratings.
  4. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jacksonville State 210th (29.8%), South Alabama 342nd (24.7%) of 365.
  5. Team matchup: a strength South Alabama may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (115th of 365) meets the Jacksonville State shooting defense (88th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean South Alabama on paper, but Mostapha El Moutaouakkil (19.5 pts, 7.2 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 11.9) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Jacksonville State win 1,940 of 5,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

JXST Jacksonville State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

USA South Alabama

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

JXSTUSA
0-0Record0-1
-1.0 192Net rating+2.4 141
105.5 236Offensive rating109.2 154
106.4 124Defensive rating106.8 134
-0.3 197Strength of schedule-0.9 289
49.7% 250Effective FG%52.7% 115
49.6% 88Opponent eFG%50.5% 128
17.0 198Turnovers per 10013.0 7
29.8% 210Offensive rebound %24.7% 342
35.7% 743-point %34.2% 157
66.3 304Pace67.2 276

Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • South Alabama 71 @ Jacksonville State 65Nov 19, 2025
  • Jacksonville State 74 @ South Alabama 76Dec 8, 2024
  • South Alabama 52 @ Jacksonville State 70Nov 30, 2023
  • Jacksonville State 66 @ South Alabama 71Dec 21, 2022
  • South Alabama 74 @ Jacksonville State 64Dec 4, 2021

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Jacksonville State39%
61%South Alabama

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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