College baseball track record
Every college baseball prediction is logged before first pitch and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. MLB track record · NFL
Live picks
The live college baseball record starts with the first graded game on opening weekend in February. Every pick is logged before first pitch and graded after the last out, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2025 and 2026 (3,145 games with a line)
Each game day was predicted using only games played before it. The lines are the closing lines ESPN stored for each game; ESPN keeps college baseball lines from 2024 on, so the comparison with the market covers two seasons. The market's win chance is its moneyline with the sportsbooks' margin removed. Our model only knew the starter a fan could have named before the game (ESPN's probable when posted, otherwise our rotation guess), never the one who actually started. The rotation guess named the actual starter 44% of the time (1,374 of 3,121 starts).
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 63.5% | 0.6355 |
| AZMango model | 63.3% | 0.6353 |
| Our power ratings, same games, no line | 63.6% | 0.6432 |
| Our ratings, games no book priced (5,177) | 66.4% | 0.6145 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Our own adjustments (likely starters, bullpens, midweek games and ratings on top of the market) did not improve on the closing line, so the guard rail has them switched off and lined games show the market's own chance. The data has limits too: ESPN's free scoreboard lists about 3,000 of the ~8,000 Division I games a season (every game of the ~70 teams it follows most closely, plus their opponents' games against them), so teams outside that group are rated from fewer games. What we add is the explanation, the rotation, a number for every listed game (lined or not), and probabilities you can check.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 1241 | 55% | 54% | |
| 60%-70% | 1037 | 65% | 64% | |
| 70%-80% | 647 | 74% | 74% | |
| 80%-90% | 213 | 83% | 81% | |
| 90%-100% | 7 | 92% | 86% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark). Games, scores, box scores and lines: ESPN's public scoreboard.