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BC

Boston College @ Harvard

NCAAW · · Lavietes Pavilion

HARV

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
HARVHarvard Crimson
96% to win
ModelBC 4%HARV 96%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: even a pick this strong still loses about 4 times in 100.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetHARV -21
Totaln/a132.7
Moneylinen/aBC +2764
HARV -2764 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
HARV 85, BC 64
8 in 10 games
HARV by 5 to HARV by 36
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Harvard can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.8 points to Harvard in our ratings.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Harvard 73rd (+11.3), Boston College 328th (-17.7) of 363.
  3. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.1 points to Harvard in our ratings.
  4. Harvard's offense (95.0 points per 100 possessions, 131st in Division I) meets a Boston College defense that ranks 357th.
  5. Team matchup: where Harvard can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (14th of 363) meets the Boston College defensive rebounding (277th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (193rd of 363) meets the Boston College shooting defense (363rd): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Karlee White (Harvard: 14.8 pts, 4.9 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 10.8) has the edge on Erin Houpt (Boston College: 7.2 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 5.2); at forward, Abigail Wright (Harvard: 13.1 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.6 ast, Game Score 8.5) has the edge on Kayla Rolph (Boston College: 7.4 pts, 4.9 reb, 0.8 ast, Game Score 4.8).
  7. Simulation: Harvard win 4,825 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Harvard may not

  1. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Boston College 70th (20.0), Harvard 186th (23.1) of 363.
  2. Weak spot: Harvard rank 335th of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.16).
  3. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Boston College 214th (0.20), Harvard 335th (0.16) of 363.
  4. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Harvard may not get to use. Their ball pressure (26th of 363) meets the Boston College ball security (70th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Harvard on paper, but Erin Houpt (7.2 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 5.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Boston College win 175 of 5,000 simulations (4%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 4 times in 100.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Who's out

BC Boston College

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

HARV Harvard

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

BCHARV
0-1Record0-1
-17.7 328Net rating+11.3 73
89.0 214Offensive rating95.0 131
106.6 357Defensive rating83.7 27
+2.3 45Strength of schedule+1.4 76
42.1% 295Effective FG%44.8% 193
54.8% 363Opponent eFG%43.8% 82
20.0 70Turnovers per 10023.1 186
28.2% 277Offensive rebound %39.8% 14
29.4% 2323-point %31.0% 155
71.7 160Pace68.6 293

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Harvard 72 @ Boston College 65Nov 19, 2025
  • Boston College 70 @ Harvard 78Nov 14, 2024
  • Harvard 66 @ Boston College 59Nov 9, 2023
  • Boston College 59 @ Harvard 68Nov 10, 2022
  • Harvard 60 @ Boston College 86Nov 9, 2021

What if?

Boston College4%
96%Harvard

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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