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LBSU

Long Beach State @ California

NCAAW · · Haas Pavilion

CAL

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
CALCalifornia Golden Bears
94% to win
ModelLBSU 6%CAL 94%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetCAL -18.3
Totaln/a133.7
Moneylinen/aLBSU +1615
CAL -1615 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
CAL 84, LBSU 66
8 in 10 games
CAL by 2 to CAL by 34
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why California can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.5 points to California in our ratings.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): California 89th (+9.0), Long Beach State 344th (-24.1) of 363.
  3. California's offense (99.2 points per 100 possessions, 67th in Division I) meets a Long Beach State defense that ranks 337th.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.7 points to California in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where California can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (57th of 363) meets the Long Beach State shooting defense (301st), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Lulu Twidale (California: 16.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.6 ast, Game Score 9.9) has the edge on Khylee Pepe (Long Beach State: 9.3 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 5.3).
  7. Simulation: California win 4,710 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why California may not

  1. Weak spot: California rank 304th of 363 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (19.6).
  2. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  3. Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  4. Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
  5. Team matchup: Long Beach State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean California on paper, but Khylee Pepe (9.3 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 5.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Long Beach State win 290 of 5,000 simulations (6%). A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

LBSU Long Beach State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

CAL California

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

LBSUCAL
0-0Record1-0
-24.1 344Net rating+9.0 89
78.3 337Offensive rating99.2 67
102.4 337Defensive rating90.1 155
+0.4 125Strength of schedule+1.7 65
41.5% 306Effective FG%49.8% 57
48.4% 301Opponent eFG%43.9% 86
26.1 310Turnovers per 10022.0 141
26.6% 306Offensive rebound %31.4% 179
28.2% 2823-point %32.6% 91
70.9 198Pace70.6 214

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Long Beach State 45 @ California 68Nov 30, 2019
  • California 56 @ Long Beach State 58Dec 13, 2014
  • Long Beach State 51 @ California 70Nov 8, 2013
  • Long Beach State 56 @ California 82Dec 11, 2010
  • California 80 @ Long Beach State 71Dec 21, 2009

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Long Beach State6%
94%California

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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