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UCF

UCF @ Florida

NCAAW · · Stephen C. O'Connell Center

FLA

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
FLAFlorida Gators
85% to win
ModelUCF 15%FLA 85%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetFLA -12.3
Totaln/a138.3
Moneylinen/aUCF +584
FLA -584 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
FLA 81, UCF 69
8 in 10 games
UCF by 4 to FLA by 28
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Florida can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Florida in our ratings.
  2. Home court: Florida play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Florida 83rd (+9.4), UCF 224th (-4.5) of 363.
  4. Florida's offense (99.7 points per 100 possessions, 63rd in Division I) meets a UCF defense that ranks 226th.
  5. Team matchup: where Florida can take advantage. Their ball pressure (108th of 363) meets the UCF ball security (268th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (60th of 363) meets the UCF shooting defense (199th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Florida. The closest: best player against best player, Mahogany Chandler-Roberts (UCF: 7.8 pts, 5.5 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 5.3) is about even with Nyadieng Yiech (Florida: 5.7 pts, 3.3 reb, 0.3 ast, Game Score 4.5).
  7. Simulation: Florida win 4,270 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Florida may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Florida lose by 4 or more.
  2. Weak spot: Florida rank 257th of 363 in three-point shooting (28.9%).
  3. Weak spot: Florida rank 252nd of 363 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (66.6%).
  4. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  5. Team matchup: where UCF can push back. Their offensive rebounding (156th of 363) meets the Florida defensive rebounding (252nd), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Florida on paper, but Mahogany Chandler-Roberts (7.8 pts, 5.5 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 5.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: UCF win 730 of 5,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Who's out

UCF UCF

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

FLA Florida

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

UCFFLA
1-0Record1-0
-4.5 224Net rating+9.4 83
88.9 217Offensive rating99.7 63
93.4 226Defensive rating90.3 160
+0.9 97Strength of schedule+2.2 47
44.9% 188Effective FG%49.7% 60
45.9% 199Opponent eFG%44.8% 136
24.8 268Turnovers per 10022.7 170
32.1% 156Offensive rebound %34.0% 100
26.5% 3273-point %28.9% 257
71.6 166Pace73.7 75

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 3 meetings

  • Florida 52 vs UCF 69Mar 19, 2022 · Postseason
  • UCF 79 vs Florida 93Dec 30, 2015
  • UCF 67 @ Florida 77Nov 13, 2010

What if?

UCF15%
85%Florida

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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