Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CONN -17.3 |
| Total | n/a | 142.2 |
| Moneyline | n/a | CONN -1270 MICH +1270 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- MICH 66, CONN 84
- 8 in 10 games
- CONN by 33 to CONN by 1
Advantages Why UConn can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 9.7 points to UConn in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated UConn about 8.3 points stronger over recent games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 5.5 points to UConn in our ratings.
- Strength: UConn rank 1st of 363 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (+50.7).
- Team matchup: where UConn can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (1st of 363) meets the Michigan shooting defense (179th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Sarah Strong (UConn: 18.4 pts, 7.6 reb, 3.9 ast, Game Score 20.0) has the edge on Olivia Olson (Michigan: 18.9 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.5 ast, Game Score 14.3).
- Simulation: UConn win 4,635 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why UConn may not
- Home court: Michigan play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Weak spot: UConn rank 353rd of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.15).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Michigan 175th (0.20), UConn 353rd (0.15) of 363.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Team matchup: where Michigan can push back. Their offensive rebounding (12th of 363) meets the UConn defensive rebounding (73rd), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean UConn on paper, but Olivia Olson (18.9 pts, 6.1 reb, 2.5 ast, Game Score 14.3) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Michigan win 365 of 5,000 simulations (7%). A 93% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
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Who's out
CONN UConn
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
MICH Michigan
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| CONN | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +50.7 1 | Net rating | +25.9 10 |
| 118.9 3 | Offensive rating | 108.4 18 |
| 68.2 1 | Defensive rating | 82.5 14 |
| +2.7 24 | Strength of schedule | +3.7 8 |
| 58.6% 1 | Effective FG% | 51.2% 27 |
| 39.0% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 45.5% 179 |
| 17.2 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.1 48 |
| 34.6% 84 | Offensive rebound % | 39.9% 12 |
| 38.8% 2 | 3-point % | 33.2% 72 |
| 73.3 91 | Pace | 75.9 34 |
Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
- Michigan 69 vs UConn 72Nov 21, 2025
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