21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
XAV

Xavier @ Northwestern

NCAAW Β· Β· Welsh-Ryan Arena

NU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
XAVXavier Musketeers
55% to win
ModelXAV 55%NU 45%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetXAV -1.4
Totaln/a132.7
Moneylinen/aXAV -121
NU +121 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
NU 74, XAV 76
8 in 10 games
XAV by 18 to NU by 14
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Xavier can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.9 points to Xavier in our ratings.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Xavier about 2.0 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.4 points to Xavier in our ratings.
  4. Xavier's offense (85.2 points per 100 possessions, 262nd in Division I) meets a Northwestern defense that ranks 358th.
  5. Team matchup: where Xavier can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (209th of 363) meets the Northwestern shooting defense (343rd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Xavier, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Mariyah Noel (14.9 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 7.2) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Xavier win 2,735 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Xavier may not

  1. Home court: Northwestern play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Northwestern's offense (92.5 points per 100 possessions, 161st in Division I) meets a Xavier defense that ranks 270th.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Xavier lose by 14 or more.
  4. Three-point shooting: Northwestern 168th (30.7%), Xavier 284th (28.1%) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Northwestern can push back. Their shooting efficiency (112th of 363) meets the Xavier shooting defense (267th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Grace Sullivan (Northwestern: 21.4 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 14.0) has the edge on Mariyah Noel (Xavier: 14.9 pts, 6.3 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 7.2).
  7. Upset odds: Northwestern win 2,265 of 5,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

Loading the latest headlines...

Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

XAV Xavier

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

NU Northwestern

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

XAVNU
1-0Record1-0
-10.9 276Net rating-14.2 303
85.2 262Offensive rating92.5 161
96.2 270Defensive rating106.7 358
+1.4 73Strength of schedule+2.3 41
44.4% 209Effective FG%47.3% 112
47.3% 267Opponent eFG%50.3% 343
24.2 247Turnovers per 10022.2 149
28.1% 280Offensive rebound %28.4% 270
28.1% 2843-point %30.7% 168
69.1 277Pace70.7 210

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

  • Northwestern 79 vs Xavier 59Dec 21, 2019

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Xavier55%
45%Northwestern

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat