21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
UNF

North Florida @ Florida State

NCAAW · · Tucker Center

FSU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
FSUFlorida State Seminoles
71% to win
ModelUNF 29%FSU 71%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetFSU -6.2
Totaln/a141.4
Moneylinen/aUNF +247
FSU -247 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
FSU 78, UNF 72
8 in 10 games
UNF by 10 to FSU by 23
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Florida State can win

  1. Home court: Florida State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Florida State 56th (19.4), North Florida 311th (26.1) of 363.
  3. Strength of schedule: Florida State 30th (+2.6), North Florida 260th (-0.7) of 363.
  4. Florida State's offense (92.7 points per 100 possessions, 155th in Division I) meets a North Florida defense that ranks 279th.
  5. Team matchup: where Florida State can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (212th of 363) meets the North Florida defensive rebounding (304th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (234th of 363) meets the North Florida shooting defense (297th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Sole Williams (Florida State: 15.0 pts, 3.8 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 8.1) has the edge on Jamisyn Stinson (North Florida: 10.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 6.0).
  7. Simulation: Florida State win 3,560 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Florida State may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated North Florida about 1.7 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: North Florida 150th (23.1), Florida State 317th (19.2) of 363.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Florida State lose by 10 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Florida State rank 349th of 363 in points allowed per game (76.2).
  5. Team matchup: North Florida have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Florida State on paper, but Jamisyn Stinson (10.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 6.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: North Florida win 1,440 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

Loading the latest headlines...

Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

UNF North Florida

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

FSU Florida State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

UNFFSU
0-0Record1-0
-13.0 294Net rating-5.7 233
83.7 283Offensive rating92.7 155
96.8 279Defensive rating98.5 298
-0.7 260Strength of schedule+2.6 30
44.4% 208Effective FG%43.9% 234
48.3% 297Opponent eFG%47.1% 259
26.1 311Turnovers per 10019.4 56
29.0% 257Offensive rebound %30.3% 212
28.4% 2733-point %30.7% 165
72.5 116Pace77.4 13

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • North Florida 49 @ Florida State 119Nov 4, 2024
  • North Florida 50 @ Florida State 78Nov 9, 2021
  • North Florida 41 @ Florida State 70Dec 18, 2019
  • North Florida 53 @ Florida State 74Nov 9, 2018
  • North Florida 51 @ Florida State 109Nov 10, 2017

What if?

North Florida29%
71%Florida State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat