- Jacksonville 1-0 · Atlantic Sun 0-0, 1st · W1
- Miami 1-0 · ACC 0-0, 7th · W1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -4.8 |
| Total | n/a | 142.1 |
| Moneyline | n/a | JAX +207 MIA -207 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- MIA 78, JAX 73
- 8 in 10 games
- JAX by 11 to MIA by 21
Advantages Why Miami can win
- Home court: Miami play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Strength of schedule: Miami 67th (+1.6), Jacksonville 232nd (-0.5) of 363.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Miami about 1.2 points stronger over recent games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Miami 69th (72.4%), Jacksonville 173rd (68.7%) of 363.
- Team matchup: where Miami can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (86th of 363) meets the Jacksonville shooting defense (187th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Ra Shaya Kyle (Miami: 16.3 pts, 10.5 reb, 1.8 ast, Game Score 13.0) has the edge on Priscilla Williams (Jacksonville: 15.1 pts, 8.3 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 10.6).
- Simulation: Miami win 3,375 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Miami may not
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Jacksonville in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Jacksonville 77th (25.1), Miami 257th (20.8) of 363.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jacksonville 3rd (0.30), Miami 240th (0.19) of 363.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Miami lose by 11 or more.
- Team matchup: Jacksonville have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean Miami on paper, but Priscilla Williams (15.1 pts, 8.3 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 10.6) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Jacksonville win 1,625 of 5,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Who's out
JAX Jacksonville
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
MIA Miami
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| JAX | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| +4.1 129 | Net rating | +7.8 98 |
| 92.9 152 | Offensive rating | 98.5 73 |
| 88.7 116 | Defensive rating | 90.7 166 |
| -0.5 232 | Strength of schedule | +1.6 67 |
| 43.9% 232 | Effective FG% | 48.5% 86 |
| 45.6% 187 | Opponent eFG% | 46.2% 218 |
| 20.9 99 | Turnovers per 100 | 19.9 69 |
| 30.5% 208 | Offensive rebound % | 32.9% 126 |
| 29.3% 236 | 3-point % | 30.7% 167 |
| 77.9 11 | Pace | 71.7 156 |
Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 3 meetings
- Jacksonville 53 @ Miami 81Nov 9, 2023
- Jacksonville 58 @ Miami 74Nov 25, 2020
- Jacksonville 36 @ Miami 65Dec 6, 2014
Your pick
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