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SIE

Siena @ Maine

NCAAW Β· Β· America East-Metro Challenge Β· Skip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium

ME

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MEMaine Black Bears
69% to win
ModelSIE 31%ME 69%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetME -5.5
Totaln/a132.6
Moneylinen/aSIE +221
ME -221 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
ME 78, SIE 72
8 in 10 games
SIE by 10 to ME by 22
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Maine can win

  1. Home court: Maine play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Maine 9th (17.3), Siena 271st (24.8) of 363.
  3. Strength of schedule: Maine 118th (+0.5), Siena 355th (-2.2) of 363.
  4. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Maine 130th (70.1%), Siena 260th (66.4%) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Maine can take advantage. Their ball pressure (175th of 363) meets the Siena ball security (271st), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. Pace clash: Siena play fast (58th of 363 in pace), Maine slow (348th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Adrianna Smith (Maine: 22.8 pts, 10.7 reb, 4.7 ast, Game Score 17.6) has the edge on Francesca Schiro (Siena: 17.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.5 ast, Game Score 12.8).
  7. Simulation: Maine win 3,440 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Maine may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Siena about 1.0 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Maine lose by 10 or more.
  3. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Siena 119th (0.21), Maine 296th (0.17) of 363.
  4. Weak spot: Maine rank 319th of 363 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (25.6%).
  5. Team matchup: where Siena can push back. Their offensive rebounding (19th of 363) meets the Maine defensive rebounding (130th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Maine on paper, but Francesca Schiro (17.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.5 ast, Game Score 12.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Siena win 1,560 of 5,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Who's out

SIE Siena

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

ME Maine

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

SIEME
1-0Record0-0
+0.9 160Net rating+2.6 143
89.3 208Offensive rating93.6 143
88.4 108Defensive rating91.0 176
-2.2 355Strength of schedule+0.5 118
42.4% 282Effective FG%45.6% 161
43.6% 67Opponent eFG%46.2% 222
24.8 271Turnovers per 10017.3 9
39.1% 19Offensive rebound %25.6% 319
25.7% 3423-point %28.9% 259
74.3 58Pace65.9 348

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • Maine 50 @ Siena 53Dec 5, 2012
  • Siena 78 @ Maine 51Dec 29, 2011

What if?

Siena31%
69%Maine

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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