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Canisius @ New Hampshire

NCAAW · · America East-Metro Challenge · Lundholm Gymnasium

UNH

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UNHNew Hampshire Wildcats
72% to win
ModelCAN 28%UNH 72%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUNH -6.6
Totaln/a125.3
Moneylinen/aCAN +251
UNH -251 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
UNH 78, CAN 72
8 in 10 games
CAN by 10 to UNH by 23
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why New Hampshire can win

  1. Home court: New Hampshire play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): New Hampshire 195th (23.2), Canisius 363rd (33.9) of 363.
  3. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): New Hampshire 65th (72.6%), Canisius 314th (64.5%) of 363.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to New Hampshire in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors New Hampshire. The nearest thing to one: their ball pressure (345th of 363) meets the Canisius ball security (363rd), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors New Hampshire, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Maggie Cavanaugh (8.8 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.8 ast, Game Score 4.9) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: New Hampshire win 3,575 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why New Hampshire may not

  1. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Canisius 67th (35.5%), New Hampshire 352nd (22.7%) of 363.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Canisius about 1.1 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations New Hampshire lose by 10 or more.
  4. Weak spot: New Hampshire rank 352nd of 363 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (22.7%).
  5. Team matchup: Canisius have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Shariah Gailes (Canisius: 12.4 pts, 8.4 reb, 0.7 ast, Game Score 8.8) has the edge on Maggie Cavanaugh (New Hampshire: 8.8 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.8 ast, Game Score 4.9).
  7. Upset odds: Canisius win 1,425 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Who's out

CAN Canisius

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

UNH New Hampshire

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CANUNH
0-0Record0-0
-19.2 335Net rating-11.6 281
78.9 332Offensive rating82.6 297
98.1 297Defensive rating94.2 241
-0.9 289Strength of schedule-0.2 194
43.6% 242Effective FG%42.6% 279
46.4% 234Opponent eFG%45.4% 170
33.9 363Turnovers per 10023.2 195
35.5% 67Offensive rebound %22.7% 352
27.7% 2993-point %27.9% 293
69.6 256Pace66.0 345

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

  • New Hampshire 42 @ Canisius 40Dec 28, 2009

What if?

Canisius29%
72%New Hampshire

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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