Niagara @ UMass Lowell
NCAAW · · America East-Metro Challenge · Kennedy Family Athletic Complex
- Niagara 0-1 · Metro 0-0, 8th · L1
- UMass Lowell 1-0 · Am. East 0-0, 6th · W1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UML -8.1 |
| Total | n/a | 129.5 |
| Moneyline | n/a | NIA +305 UML -305 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- UML 79, NIA 71
- 8 in 10 games
- NIA by 8 to UML by 24
Advantages Why UMass Lowell can win
- Home court: UMass Lowell play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to UMass Lowell in our ratings.
- Relative strength: UMass Lowell rank 194th of 363 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (30.9%).
- Relative strength: UMass Lowell rank 209th of 363 in strength of schedule (-0.3).
- Team matchup: where UMass Lowell can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (194th of 363) meets the Niagara defensive rebounding (359th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: Niagara play fast (37th of 363 in pace), UMass Lowell slow (352nd); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jaini Edmonds (UMass Lowell: 13.4 pts, 3.4 reb, 2.6 ast, Game Score 6.6) has the edge on Talia Dial (Niagara: 11.7 pts, 2.0 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 3.6).
- Simulation: UMass Lowell win 3,765 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why UMass Lowell may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations UMass Lowell lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: UMass Lowell rank 352nd of 363 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (105.7).
- Weak spot: UMass Lowell rank 352nd of 363 in points per game (52.3).
- Weak spot: UMass Lowell rank 350th of 363 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (-25.5).
- Team matchup: where Niagara can push back. Their ball pressure (24th of 363) meets the UMass Lowell ball security (313th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (235th of 363) meets the UMass Lowell defensive rebounding (342nd): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean UMass Lowell on paper, but Talia Dial (11.7 pts, 2.0 reb, 0.9 ast, Game Score 3.6) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Niagara win 1,235 of 5,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Who's out
NIA Niagara
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
UML UMass Lowell
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| NIA | UML | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-0 |
| -34.2 360 | Net rating | -25.5 350 |
| 67.5 362 | Offensive rating | 80.2 323 |
| 101.6 331 | Defensive rating | 105.7 352 |
| -0.4 217 | Strength of schedule | -0.3 209 |
| 35.9% 362 | Effective FG% | 41.0% 315 |
| 52.4% 358 | Opponent eFG% | 49.9% 339 |
| 30.8 360 | Turnovers per 100 | 26.2 313 |
| 29.9% 235 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 194 |
| 25.4% 345 | 3-point % | 26.0% 337 |
| 75.7 37 | Pace | 65.3 352 |
Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
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