Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SMU -1.6 |
| Total | n/a | 132 |
| Moneyline | n/a | HAMP +122 SMU -122 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- SMU 76, HAMP 75
- 8 in 10 games
- HAMP by 15 to SMU by 17
Advantages Why SMU can win
- Home court: SMU play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Strength of schedule: SMU 81st (+1.3), Hampton 228th (-0.5) of 363.
- Three-point shooting: SMU 158th (30.9%), Hampton 288th (27.9%) of 363.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): SMU 227th (0.19), Hampton 315th (0.17) of 363.
- Team matchup: where SMU can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (218th of 363) meets the Hampton defensive rebounding (356th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: SMU play fast (95th of 363 in pace), Hampton slow (300th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors SMU. The closest: best player against best player, Kyla Deck (SMU: 10.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 8.4) is about even with Kiki McElrath (Hampton: 13.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 7.5).
- Simulation: SMU win 2,745 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why SMU may not
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Hampton about 3.9 points stronger over recent games.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations SMU lose by 15 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hampton 113th (21.2), SMU 225th (23.8) of 363.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Hampton in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where Hampton can push back. Their offensive rebounding (210th of 363) meets the SMU defensive rebounding (346th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (118th of 363) meets the SMU ball security (225th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: At forward, Le'Asia Foreman (Hampton: 6.1 pts, 6.7 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 7.4) has the edge on Anaya Brown (SMU: 6.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 0.6 ast, Game Score 5.4).
- Upset odds: Hampton win 2,255 of 5,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
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Who's out
HAMP Hampton
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
SMU SMU
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| HAMP | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| -11.7 283 | Net rating | -15.4 313 |
| 84.7 274 | Offensive rating | 84.8 272 |
| 96.3 273 | Defensive rating | 100.2 314 |
| -0.5 228 | Strength of schedule | +1.3 81 |
| 40.5% 329 | Effective FG% | 42.2% 285 |
| 47.0% 253 | Opponent eFG% | 49.1% 316 |
| 21.2 113 | Turnovers per 100 | 23.8 225 |
| 30.4% 210 | Offensive rebound % | 30.2% 218 |
| 27.9% 288 | 3-point % | 30.9% 158 |
| 68.3 300 | Pace | 73.3 95 |
Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
- Hampton 71 @ SMU 84Nov 27, 2009
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