Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UVA -0.1 |
| Total | n/a | 133.7 |
| Moneyline | n/a | UVA +100 DAV -100 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- DAV 75, UVA 75
- 8 in 10 games
- UVA by 17 to DAV by 16
Advantages Why Davidson can win
- Home court: Davidson play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Davidson 73rd (25.3), Virginia 278th (20.3) of 363.
- Strength: Davidson rank 23rd of 363 in points allowed per game (58.4).
- Strength: Davidson rank 36th of 363 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.5%).
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Davidson. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (75th of 363) meets the Virginia shooting defense (66th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: no key position favors Davidson, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Charlise Dunn (15.3 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 11.1) leading the way.
- Simulation: Davidson win 2,500 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Davidson may not
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Virginia in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Virginia about 1.6 points stronger over recent games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.3 points to Virginia in our ratings.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Virginia 27th (37.8%), Davidson 195th (30.8%) of 363.
- Team matchup: where Virginia can push back. Their shooting efficiency (63rd of 363) meets the Davidson shooting defense (194th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Kymora Johnson (Virginia: 19.5 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.9 ast, Game Score 15.0) has the edge on Charlise Dunn (Davidson: 15.3 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 11.1); at forward, Caitlin Weimar (Virginia: 7.7 pts, 5.7 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 8.0) has the edge on Asha Nightingale (Davidson: 4.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 4.9).
- Upset odds: Virginia win 2,500 of 5,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
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Who's out
UVA Virginia
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
DAV Davidson
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| UVA | DAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| +15.1 45 | Net rating | +10.2 79 |
| 105.0 30 | Offensive rating | 95.7 114 |
| 89.9 150 | Defensive rating | 85.6 46 |
| +2.4 39 | Strength of schedule | +1.1 91 |
| 49.5% 63 | Effective FG% | 49.0% 75 |
| 43.6% 66 | Opponent eFG% | 45.8% 194 |
| 19.7 63 | Turnovers per 100 | 22.6 165 |
| 37.8% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 195 |
| 32.4% 98 | 3-point % | 33.1% 75 |
| 71.7 158 | Pace | 68.3 303 |
Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
- Davidson 67 @ Virginia 57Dec 28, 2014
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