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MSM

Mount St. Mary's @ UMBC

NCAAW · · America East-Metro Challenge · Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena

UMBC

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UMBCUMBC Retrievers
81% to win
ModelMSM 19%UMBC 81%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUMBC -10.3
Totaln/a130.9
Moneylinen/aMSM +416
UMBC -416 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
UMBC 80, MSM 70
8 in 10 games
MSM by 6 to UMBC by 26
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why UMBC can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to UMBC in our ratings.
  2. Home court: UMBC play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  3. Strength of schedule: UMBC 183rd (-0.1), Mount St. Mary's 330th (-1.5) of 363.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to UMBC in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where UMBC can take advantage. Their ball pressure (59th of 363) meets the Mount St. Mary's ball security (266th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (87th of 363) meets the Mount St. Mary's defensive rebounding (237th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors UMBC. The closest: at forward, Alaina Williams (UMBC: 5.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 0.3 ast, Game Score 5.0) is about even with Jaedyn Jamison (Mount St. Mary's: 5.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 3.9).
  7. Simulation: UMBC win 4,030 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why UMBC may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations UMBC lose by 6 or more.
  2. History: Mount St. Mary's won 4 of the last 4 meetings (college rosters turn over, so this says little).
  3. Weak spot: UMBC rank 334th of 363 in effective shooting (eFG%) (40.3%).
  4. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Mount St. Mary's about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
  5. Team matchup: where Mount St. Mary's can push back. Their ball pressure (80th of 363) meets the UMBC ball security (148th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Gabrielle Kennerly (Mount St. Mary's: 15.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 9.9) has the edge on Heidi Williams (UMBC: 9.8 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 5.7); at center, Amber Bullard (Mount St. Mary's: 9.2 pts, 6.2 reb, 0.5 ast, Game Score 6.0) has the edge on Delaney Yarborough (UMBC: 5.6 pts, 4.2 reb, 0.2 ast, Game Score 4.5).
  7. Upset odds: Mount St. Mary's win 970 of 5,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Who's out

MSM Mount St. Mary's

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

UMBC UMBC

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

MSMUMBC
0-1Record0-0
-4.3 222Net rating+0.1 167
83.6 287Offensive rating87.1 244
87.9 92Defensive rating87.0 76
-1.5 330Strength of schedule-0.1 183
42.0% 296Effective FG%40.3% 334
44.4% 110Opponent eFG%45.3% 166
24.8 266Turnovers per 10022.2 148
31.7% 169Offensive rebound %34.5% 87
27.4% 3073-point %29.2% 242
72.0 145Pace68.9 284

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 4 meetings

  • UMBC 57 @ Mount St. Mary's 63Dec 10, 2022
  • UMBC 58 @ Mount St. Mary's 72Dec 5, 2020
  • UMBC 61 @ Mount St. Mary's 71Nov 20, 2019
  • Mount St. Mary's 65 @ UMBC 52Dec 6, 2018

What if?

Mount St. Mary's19%
81%UMBC

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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