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NAU

Northern Arizona @ Arizona State

NCAAW · · Desert Financial Arena

ASU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
ASUArizona State Sun Devils
89% to win
ModelNAU 11%ASU 89%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetASU -14.6
Totaln/a134.8
Moneylinen/aNAU +793
ASU -793 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
ASU 82, NAU 68
8 in 10 games
NAU by 2 to ASU by 31
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Arizona State can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.5 points to Arizona State in our ratings.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Arizona State 84th (+9.4), Northern Arizona 273rd (-10.7) of 363.
  3. Home court: Arizona State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  4. Arizona State's offense (93.0 points per 100 possessions, 147th in Division I) meets a Northern Arizona defense that ranks 309th.
  5. Team matchup: where Arizona State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (130th of 363) meets the Northern Arizona shooting defense (317th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (49th of 363) meets the Northern Arizona ball security (154th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, McKinna Brackens (Arizona State: 14.4 pts, 6.4 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 10.4) has the edge on Madison Watts (Northern Arizona: 10.4 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 7.9).
  7. Simulation: Arizona State win 4,440 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Arizona State may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Arizona State lose by 2 or more.
  2. Three-point shooting: Northern Arizona 78th (33.0%), Arizona State 205th (30.0%) of 363.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Northern Arizona about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Northern Arizona 51st (0.24), Arizona State 131st (0.21) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: Northern Arizona have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Arizona State on paper, but Madison Watts (10.4 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 7.9) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Northern Arizona win 560 of 5,000 simulations (11%). A 89% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

NAU Northern Arizona

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

ASU Arizona State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

NAUASU
0-0Record1-0
-10.7 273Net rating+9.4 84
88.9 216Offensive rating93.0 147
99.6 309Defensive rating83.6 25
+0.1 155Strength of schedule+1.6 66
44.5% 204Effective FG%46.6% 130
49.2% 317Opponent eFG%43.7% 75
22.3 154Turnovers per 10023.0 180
26.9% 296Offensive rebound %31.2% 184
33.0% 783-point %30.0% 205
75.9 32Pace71.7 157

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • Northern Arizona 68 @ Arizona State 69Nov 7, 2022
  • Northern Arizona 46 @ Arizona State 81Nov 12, 2010

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Northern Arizona11%
89%Arizona State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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