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Quinnipiac @ Vermont

NCAAW · · America East-Metro Challenge · Patrick Gymnasium

UVM

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UVMVermont Catamounts
58% to win
ModelQUIN 42%UVM 58%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUVM -2
Totaln/a118.8
Moneylinen/aQUIN +137
UVM -137 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
UVM 76, QUIN 74
8 in 10 games
QUIN by 14 to UVM by 18
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Vermont can win

  1. Home court: Vermont play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Vermont 172nd (-0.0), Quinnipiac 329th (-1.5) of 363.
  3. Strength: Vermont rank 3rd of 363 in points allowed per game (52.9).
  4. Strength: Vermont rank 14th of 363 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (17.5).
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Vermont. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (66th of 363) meets the Quinnipiac shooting defense (15th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Nikola Priede (Vermont: 17.4 pts, 7.5 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 15.2) has the edge on Jackie Grisdale (Quinnipiac: 12.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 9.6).
  7. Simulation: Vermont win 2,885 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Vermont may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Quinnipiac in our ratings.
  2. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to Quinnipiac in our ratings.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Quinnipiac about 1.0 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Vermont lose by 14 or more.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Vermont may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (66th of 363) meets the Quinnipiac shooting defense (15th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Vermont on paper, but Jackie Grisdale (12.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 9.6) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Quinnipiac win 2,115 of 5,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

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Who's out

QUIN Quinnipiac

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

UVM Vermont

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

QUINUVM
0-0Record0-0
+22.3 16Net rating+15.5 41
102.2 43Offensive rating100.0 59
79.9 6Defensive rating84.5 39
-1.5 329Strength of schedule-0.0 172
50.0% 53Effective FG%49.5% 66
41.4% 15Opponent eFG%41.6% 21
18.4 29Turnovers per 10017.5 14
31.0% 189Offensive rebound %28.3% 272
36.7% 103-point %33.2% 73
65.7 350Pace62.6 362

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 4 meetings

  • Quinnipiac 68 @ Vermont 63Dec 15, 2024
  • Vermont 58 @ Quinnipiac 53Nov 17, 2023
  • Quinnipiac 77 @ Vermont 65Nov 28, 2015
  • Vermont 67 @ Quinnipiac 76Dec 1, 2010

What if?

Quinnipiac42%
58%Vermont

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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