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EKU

Eastern Kentucky @ Morehead State

NCAAW · · Ellis T. Johnson Arena

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Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
EKUEastern Kentucky Colonels
69% to win
ModelEKU 69%MORE 31%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetEKU -6.1
Totaln/a134.7
Moneylinen/aEKU -221
MORE +221 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
MORE 72, EKU 79
8 in 10 games
EKU by 22 to MORE by 10
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Eastern Kentucky can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to Eastern Kentucky in our ratings.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Eastern Kentucky about 3.8 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Eastern Kentucky 55th (+13.5), Morehead State 232nd (-5.7) of 363.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to Eastern Kentucky in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Eastern Kentucky can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (117th of 363) meets the Morehead State shooting defense (232nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (128th of 363) meets the Morehead State ball security (208th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Eastern Kentucky. The closest: best player against best player, Liz Freihofer (Eastern Kentucky: 12.3 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 10.3) is about even with Kate Dike (Morehead State: 14.2 pts, 7.1 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 9.2).
  7. Simulation: Eastern Kentucky win 3,445 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Eastern Kentucky may not

  1. Home court: Morehead State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Morehead State 212th (-0.4), Eastern Kentucky 338th (-1.6) of 363.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Eastern Kentucky lose by 10 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Eastern Kentucky rank 338th of 363 in strength of schedule (-1.6).
  5. Team matchup: Morehead State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Eastern Kentucky on paper, but Kate Dike (14.2 pts, 7.1 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 9.2) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Morehead State win 1,555 of 5,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Who's out

EKU Eastern Kentucky

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

MORE Morehead State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

EKUMORE
0-1Record0-1
+13.5 55Net rating-5.7 232
97.4 86Offensive rating88.1 229
84.0 30Defensive rating93.8 236
-1.6 338Strength of schedule-0.4 212
47.2% 117Effective FG%47.2% 116
42.6% 41Opponent eFG%46.4% 232
18.8 39Turnovers per 10023.4 208
28.3% 274Offensive rebound %24.2% 337
30.2% 1943-point %30.0% 206
72.0 146Pace71.1 182

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Eastern Kentucky 73 @ Morehead State 60Nov 26, 2025
  • Morehead State 55 @ Eastern Kentucky 64Nov 13, 2022
  • Eastern Kentucky 66 @ Morehead State 43Dec 15, 2021
  • Morehead State 59 @ Eastern Kentucky 74Dec 14, 2020
  • Eastern Kentucky 50 @ Morehead State 49Dec 11, 2020

What if?

Eastern Kentucky69%
31%Morehead State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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