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CARK

Central Arkansas @ Baylor

NCAAW · · Foster Pavilion

BAY

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
BAYBaylor Bears
78% to win
ModelCARK 22%BAY 78%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetBAY -8.8
Totaln/a131.8
Moneylinen/aCARK +350
BAY -350 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
BAY 79, CARK 70
8 in 10 games
CARK by 7 to BAY by 25
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Baylor can win

  1. Home court: Baylor play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Baylor 23rd (+2.7), Central Arkansas 324th (-1.3) of 363.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Baylor about 2.2 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Baylor 63rd (0.23), Central Arkansas 341st (0.15) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Baylor. The nearest thing to one: their offensive rebounding (75th of 363) meets the Central Arkansas defensive rebounding (1st), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Taliah Scott (Baylor: 19.5 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.7 ast, Game Score 11.3) has the edge on Bree Stephens (Central Arkansas: 10.4 pts, 7.2 reb, 2.6 ast, Game Score 10.0).
  7. Simulation: Baylor win 3,890 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Baylor may not

  1. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Central Arkansas 59th (19.6), Baylor 190th (23.1) of 363.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Baylor lose by 7 or more.
  3. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Central Arkansas 1st (76.7%), Baylor 175th (68.6%) of 363.
  4. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Baylor may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (75th of 363) meets the Central Arkansas defensive rebounding (1st), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Baylor on paper, but Bree Stephens (10.4 pts, 7.2 reb, 2.6 ast, Game Score 10.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Central Arkansas win 1,110 of 5,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

CARK Central Arkansas

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

BAY Baylor

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CARKBAY
0-0Record1-0
+12.5 65Net rating+14.6 47
96.2 109Offensive rating98.3 76
83.7 28Defensive rating83.7 26
-1.3 324Strength of schedule+2.7 23
46.5% 136Effective FG%48.4% 91
41.3% 14Opponent eFG%40.2% 6
19.6 59Turnovers per 10023.1 190
32.1% 155Offensive rebound %35.0% 75
30.3% 1843-point %31.5% 136
70.2 232Pace72.3 134

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • Central Arkansas 37 @ Baylor 82Nov 25, 2020
  • Central Arkansas 55 @ Baylor 86Nov 14, 2017

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Central Arkansas22%
78%Baylor

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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