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GASO

Georgia Southern @ Mercer

NCAAW · · Hawkins Arena

MER

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
MERMercer Bears
53% to win
ModelGASO 47%MER 53%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetMER -0.6
Totaln/a132.2
Moneylinen/aGASO +112
MER -112 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
MER 76, GASO 75
8 in 10 games
GASO by 15 to MER by 17
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Mercer can win

  1. Home court: Mercer play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. History: Mercer won 4 of the last 5 meetings (college rosters turn over, so this says little).
  3. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Mercer 72nd (25.3), Georgia Southern 167th (22.7) of 363.
  4. Strength: Mercer rank 40th of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.24).
  5. Team matchup: where Mercer can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (193rd of 363) meets the Georgia Southern defensive rebounding (269th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Mercer, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Nahawa Diarra (11.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 7.2) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Mercer win 2,635 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Mercer may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to Georgia Southern in our ratings.
  2. Strength of schedule: Georgia Southern 74th (+1.4), Mercer 345th (-1.7) of 363.
  3. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.3 points to Georgia Southern in our ratings.
  4. Georgia Southern's offense (98.1 points per 100 possessions, 78th in Division I) meets a Mercer defense that ranks 161st.
  5. Team matchup: where Georgia Southern can push back. Their shooting efficiency (88th of 363) meets the Mercer shooting defense (175th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Shanti Simmons (Georgia Southern: 11.3 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 12.5) has the edge on Nahawa Diarra (Mercer: 11.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 7.2).
  7. Upset odds: Georgia Southern win 2,365 of 5,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

GASO Georgia Southern

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

MER Mercer

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

GASOMER
0-1Record0-0
+6.1 116Net rating-0.6 177
98.1 78Offensive rating89.8 199
92.1 201Defensive rating90.4 161
+1.4 74Strength of schedule-1.7 345
48.5% 88Effective FG%42.4% 283
45.0% 150Opponent eFG%45.4% 175
19.8 67Turnovers per 10022.0 139
28.6% 267Offensive rebound %31.0% 193
31.8% 1243-point %32.3% 104
70.7 209Pace69.5 262

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Mercer 72 @ Georgia Southern 93Nov 22, 2025
  • Georgia Southern 52 @ Mercer 62Dec 7, 2019
  • Mercer 79 @ Georgia Southern 72Nov 12, 2018
  • Georgia Southern 45 @ Mercer 72Nov 16, 2017
  • Mercer 77 @ Georgia Southern 56Nov 29, 2016

What if?

Georgia Southern47%
53%Mercer

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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