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ILST

Illinois State @ Dayton

NCAAW · · UD Arena

DAY

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
ILSTIllinois State Redbirds
52% to win
ModelILST 52%DAY 48%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetILST -0.6
Totaln/a137.4
Moneylinen/aILST -108
DAY +108 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
DAY 75, ILST 75
8 in 10 games
ILST by 17 to DAY by 16
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Illinois State can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.3 points to Illinois State in our ratings.
  2. Illinois State's offense (101.3 points per 100 possessions, 49th in Division I) meets a Dayton defense that ranks 262nd.
  3. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Illinois State 66th (19.8), Dayton 308th (26.0) of 363.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.5 points to Illinois State in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Illinois State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (69th of 363) meets the Dayton shooting defense (198th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Nevaeh Thomas (Illinois State: 13.8 pts, 6.4 reb, 2.8 ast, Game Score 13.9) has the edge on Nicole Stephens (Dayton: 10.9 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.6 ast, Game Score 8.0).
  7. Simulation: Illinois State win 2,600 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Illinois State may not

  1. Home court: Dayton play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Dayton's offense (94.7 points per 100 possessions, 135th in Division I) meets a Illinois State defense that ranks 231st.
  3. Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Dayton 54th (36.0%), Illinois State 232nd (30.0%) of 363.
  4. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Illinois State lose by 16 or more.
  5. Team matchup: where Dayton can push back. Their shooting efficiency (74th of 363) meets the Illinois State shooting defense (245th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Illinois State on paper, but Nicole Stephens (10.9 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.6 ast, Game Score 8.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Dayton win 2,400 of 5,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

ILST Illinois State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

DAY Dayton

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

ILSTDAY
1-0Record0-0
+7.6 102Net rating-0.8 178
101.3 49Offensive rating94.7 135
93.7 231Defensive rating95.5 262
-0.7 263Strength of schedule-0.0 174
49.4% 69Effective FG%49.1% 74
46.7% 245Opponent eFG%45.9% 198
19.8 66Turnovers per 10026.0 308
30.0% 232Offensive rebound %36.0% 54
31.9% 1183-point %31.2% 146
71.3 174Pace70.8 205

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 3 meetings

  • Dayton 76 @ Illinois State 87Nov 3, 2025
  • Illinois State 74 @ Dayton 70Nov 10, 2022
  • Dayton 78 @ Illinois State 67Dec 5, 2021

What if?

Illinois State52%
48%Dayton

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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