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MVSU

Mississippi Valley State @ Chicago State

NCAAW · · Jones Convocation Center

CHST

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
CHSTChicago State Cougars
67% to win
ModelMVSU 33%CHST 67%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetCHST -5.3
Totaln/a144.9
Moneylinen/aMVSU +207
CHST -207 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
CHST 78, MVSU 73
8 in 10 games
MVSU by 11 to CHST by 21
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Chicago State can win

  1. Home court: Chicago State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Chicago State 240th (24.1), Mississippi Valley State 338th (27.4) of 363.
  3. Relative strength: Chicago State rank 125th of 363 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (23.7).
  4. Relative strength: Chicago State rank 148th of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.21).
  5. Team matchup: where Chicago State can take advantage. Their ball pressure (125th of 363) meets the Mississippi Valley State ball security (338th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (281st of 363) meets the Mississippi Valley State defensive rebounding (351st): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Keona McGee (Chicago State: 12.3 pts, 3.8 reb, 2.2 ast, Game Score 7.2) has the edge on Ariel Jefferson (Mississippi Valley State: 8.9 pts, 6.3 reb, 0.3 ast, Game Score 5.1).
  7. Simulation: Chicago State win 3,370 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Chicago State may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Chicago State lose by 11 or more.
  2. Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Mississippi Valley State in our ratings.
  3. Weak spot: Chicago State rank 345th of 363 in points allowed per game (75.7).
  4. Weak spot: Chicago State rank 344th of 363 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (61.5%).
  5. Team matchup: where Mississippi Valley State can push back. Their offensive rebounding (145th of 363) meets the Chicago State defensive rebounding (344th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (168th of 363) meets the Chicago State ball security (240th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Chicago State on paper, but Ariel Jefferson (8.9 pts, 6.3 reb, 0.3 ast, Game Score 5.1) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Mississippi Valley State win 1,630 of 5,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

MVSU Mississippi Valley State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

CHST Chicago State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

MVSUCHST
0-1Record0-1
-24.2 347Net rating-17.7 329
74.9 353Offensive rating83.9 281
99.1 304Defensive rating101.7 332
-2.1 353Strength of schedule-1.3 321
37.1% 358Effective FG%43.0% 266
45.8% 196Opponent eFG%49.3% 320
27.4 338Turnovers per 10024.1 240
32.4% 145Offensive rebound %28.0% 281
22.4% 3623-point %27.1% 315
78.7 6Pace74.5 54

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Mississippi Valley State33%
67%Chicago State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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