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WAG

Wagner @ Lafayette

NCAAW · · Kirby Sports Center

LAF

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
LAFLafayette Leopards
58% to win
ModelWAG 42%LAF 58%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetLAF -2.5
Totaln/a126.3
Moneylinen/aWAG +140
LAF -140 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
LAF 76, WAG 74
8 in 10 games
WAG by 14 to LAF by 18
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Lafayette can win

  1. Home court: Lafayette play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Three-point shooting: Lafayette 58th (33.8%), Wagner 355th (24.0%) of 363.
  3. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Lafayette 118th (21.4), Wagner 316th (26.3) of 363.
  4. History: Lafayette won 4 of the last 5 meetings (college rosters turn over, so this says little).
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Lafayette. The nearest thing to one: their ball pressure (275th of 363) meets the Wagner ball security (316th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Teresa Kiewiet (Lafayette: 16.3 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 10.2) has the edge on Irene Fernandez de Caleya (Wagner: 10.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 6.8); at forward, Maddison Krug (Lafayette: 3.7 pts, 7.1 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 5.8) has the edge on Raneem ElBarky (Wagner: 4.8 pts, 2.7 reb, 0.4 ast, Game Score 2.7).
  7. Simulation: Lafayette win 2,920 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Lafayette may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Wagner in our ratings.
  2. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.7 points to Wagner in our ratings.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Lafayette lose by 14 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Lafayette rank 342nd of 363 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.7%).
  5. Team matchup: where Wagner can push back. Their offensive rebounding (199th of 363) meets the Lafayette defensive rebounding (335th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their ball pressure (21st of 363) meets the Lafayette ball security (118th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Lafayette on paper, but Irene Fernandez de Caleya (10.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 2.3 ast, Game Score 6.8) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Wagner win 2,080 of 5,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

WAG Wagner

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

LAF Lafayette

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

WAGLAF
0-0Record0-1
-8.6 257Net rating-8.7 258
78.1 339Offensive rating87.9 232
86.7 69Defensive rating96.6 275
-2.2 357Strength of schedule-1.0 291
40.1% 335Effective FG%44.6% 200
43.3% 55Opponent eFG%45.3% 167
26.3 316Turnovers per 10021.4 118
30.7% 199Offensive rebound %23.7% 342
24.0% 3553-point %33.8% 58
70.2 230Pace66.2 341

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Lafayette 56 @ Wagner 53Nov 20, 2025
  • Wagner 45 @ Lafayette 74Dec 8, 2024
  • Lafayette 66 @ Wagner 43Nov 17, 2018
  • Wagner 52 @ Lafayette 70Dec 20, 2017
  • Lafayette 48 @ Wagner 69Dec 9, 2015

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Wagner42%
58%Lafayette

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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