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LAM

Lamar @ UT Arlington

NCAAW · · College Park Center

UTA

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
LAMLamar Cardinals
60% to win
ModelLAM 60%UTA 40%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetLAM -3.8
Totaln/a132.8
Moneylinen/aLAM -150
UTA +150 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
UTA 73, LAM 77
8 in 10 games
LAM by 20 to UTA by 13
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Lamar can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.3 points to Lamar in our ratings.
  2. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.6 points to Lamar in our ratings.
  3. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Lamar 114th (+6.2), UT Arlington 253rd (-8.3) of 363.
  4. Point differential per game: Lamar 116th (+4.3), UT Arlington 259th (-6.2) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Lamar can take advantage. Their ball pressure (45th of 363) meets the UT Arlington ball security (326th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (20th of 363) meets the UT Arlington defensive rebounding (256th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: UT Arlington play fast (50th of 363 in pace), Lamar slow (261st); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Lamar, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Jacei Denley (10.2 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 7.3) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Lamar win 3,000 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Lamar may not

  1. Home court: UT Arlington play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: UT Arlington 164th (+0.0), Lamar 300th (-1.1) of 363.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Lamar lose by 13 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Lamar rank 300th of 363 in strength of schedule (-1.1).
  5. Team matchup: where UT Arlington can push back. Their ball pressure (91st of 363) meets the Lamar ball security (291st), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Kira Reynolds (UT Arlington: 13.0 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.3 ast, Game Score 10.4) has the edge on Jacei Denley (Lamar: 10.2 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 7.3).
  7. Upset odds: UT Arlington win 2,000 of 5,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

LAM Lamar

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

UTA UT Arlington

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

LAMUTA
0-0Record0-1
+6.2 114Net rating-8.3 253
92.8 153Offensive rating81.9 308
86.6 67Defensive rating90.3 159
-1.1 300Strength of schedule+0.0 164
45.1% 179Effective FG%42.8% 274
44.9% 145Opponent eFG%44.5% 117
25.4 291Turnovers per 10026.9 326
38.9% 20Offensive rebound %29.1% 254
33.3% 653-point %31.0% 153
69.5 261Pace74.7 50

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • UT Arlington 55 @ Lamar 66Nov 16, 2025
  • Lamar 74 @ UT Arlington 57Nov 10, 2023
  • UT Arlington 60 @ Lamar 56Dec 3, 2022
  • Lamar 68 @ UT Arlington 52Jan 14, 2012
  • UT Arlington 56 @ Lamar 62Jan 15, 2011

What if?

Lamar60%
40%UT Arlington

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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