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AKR

Akron @ George Mason

NCAAW · · EagleBank Arena

GMU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
GMUGeorge Mason Patriots
94% to win
ModelAKR 6%GMU 94%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetGMU -18.6
Totaln/a139.2
Moneylinen/aAKR +1647
GMU -1647 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
GMU 84, AKR 65
8 in 10 games
GMU by 3 to GMU by 34
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why George Mason can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 9.5 points to George Mason in our ratings.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): George Mason 74th (+10.9), Akron 321st (-16.3) of 363.
  3. George Mason's offense (97.2 points per 100 possessions, 89th in Division I) meets a Akron defense that ranks 349th.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.8 points to George Mason in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where George Mason can take advantage. Their ball pressure (42nd of 363) meets the Akron ball security (265th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (205th of 363) meets the Akron shooting defense (352nd): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. Pace clash: Akron play fast (26th of 363 in pace), George Mason slow (244th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors George Mason. The closest: best player against best player, Mary Amoateng (George Mason: 8.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast, Game Score 7.0) is about even with Keiryn McGuff (Akron: 9.6 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 7.0).
  7. Simulation: George Mason win 4,715 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why George Mason may not

  1. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Akron 87th (0.22), George Mason 194th (0.20) of 363.
  2. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  3. Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  4. Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
  5. Team matchup: Akron have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean George Mason on paper, but Keiryn McGuff (9.6 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 7.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Akron win 285 of 5,000 simulations (6%). A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

AKR Akron

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

GMU George Mason

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

AKRGMU
0-1Record1-0
-16.3 321Net rating+10.9 74
88.1 230Offensive rating97.2 89
104.4 349Defensive rating86.4 61
+0.5 117Strength of schedule+1.5 72
45.9% 150Effective FG%44.5% 205
51.1% 352Opponent eFG%44.8% 133
24.8 265Turnovers per 10018.6 35
26.9% 298Offensive rebound %34.7% 81
30.7% 1623-point %33.1% 76
76.2 26Pace69.9 244

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • George Mason 70 @ Akron 88Dec 7, 2013
  • Akron 65 @ George Mason 49Dec 5, 2012

What if?

Akron6%
94%George Mason

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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