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MILW

Milwaukee @ Saint Louis

NCAAW · · Chaifetz Arena

SLU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
SLUSaint Louis Billikens
71% to win
ModelMILW 29%SLU 71%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetSLU -6.7
Totaln/a135.1
Moneylinen/aMILW +250
SLU -250 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
SLU 79, MILW 72
8 in 10 games
MILW by 9 to SLU by 23
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Saint Louis can win

  1. Home court: Saint Louis play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Saint Louis 121st (+0.5), Milwaukee 311th (-1.2) of 363.
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Saint Louis in our ratings.
  4. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Saint Louis 172nd (22.6), Milwaukee 347th (17.6) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Saint Louis. The nearest thing to one: their ball pressure (172nd of 363) meets the Milwaukee ball security (206th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit. Pace clash: Saint Louis play fast (71st of 363 in pace), Milwaukee slow (271st); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Alyssa Koerkenmeier (Saint Louis: 11.8 pts, 9.3 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 11.0) has the edge on Grace Lomen (Milwaukee: 10.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 5.9).
  7. Simulation: Saint Louis win 3,570 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Saint Louis may not

  1. Three-point shooting: Milwaukee 64th (33.4%), Saint Louis 335th (26.1%) of 363.
  2. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Milwaukee 79th (72.0%), Saint Louis 316th (64.5%) of 363.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Saint Louis lose by 9 or more.
  4. Weak spot: Saint Louis rank 335th of 363 in three-point shooting (26.1%).
  5. Team matchup: Milwaukee have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Saint Louis on paper, but Grace Lomen (10.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 5.9) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Milwaukee win 1,430 of 5,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

MILW Milwaukee

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

SLU Saint Louis

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

MILWSLU
0-1Record0-1
-14.4 305Net rating-7.7 245
86.2 253Offensive rating85.0 268
100.6 320Defensive rating92.7 217
-1.2 311Strength of schedule+0.5 121
45.3% 171Effective FG%41.3% 309
47.6% 278Opponent eFG%43.9% 87
23.4 206Turnovers per 10024.8 267
25.6% 318Offensive rebound %32.1% 158
33.4% 643-point %26.1% 335
69.3 271Pace73.9 71

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

  • Saint Louis 61 vs Milwaukee 44Mar 20, 2021 · Postseason

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Milwaukee29%
71%Saint Louis

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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