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UCSB

UC Santa Barbara @ Pepperdine

NCAAW · · Firestone Fieldhouse

PEPP

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
PEPPPepperdine Waves
70% to win
ModelUCSB 30%PEPP 70%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetPEPP -6.1
Totaln/a131.5
Moneylinen/aUCSB +237
PEPP -237 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
PEPP 78, UCSB 72
8 in 10 games
UCSB by 10 to PEPP by 23
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Pepperdine can win

  1. Home court: Pepperdine play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Pepperdine 197th (-0.2), UC Santa Barbara 279th (-0.8) of 363.
  3. Strength: Pepperdine rank 46th of 363 in effective shooting (eFG%) (50.4%).
  4. Strength: Pepperdine rank 51st of 363 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
  5. Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors Pepperdine. The nearest thing to one: their shooting efficiency (46th of 363) meets the UC Santa Barbara shooting defense (34th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors Pepperdine. The closest: best player against best player, Elli Guiney (Pepperdine: 14.7 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.7 ast, Game Score 10.4) is about even with Zoe Borter (UC Santa Barbara: 14.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 10.1).
  7. Simulation: Pepperdine win 3,515 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Pepperdine may not

  1. UC Santa Barbara's offense (95.7 points per 100 possessions, 116th in Division I) meets a Pepperdine defense that ranks 193rd.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Pepperdine lose by 10 or more.
  3. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): UC Santa Barbara 72nd (20.0), Pepperdine 179th (22.9) of 363.
  4. Weak spot: Pepperdine rank 338th of 363 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (18.3).
  5. Team matchup: a strength Pepperdine may not get to use. Their shooting efficiency (46th of 363) meets the UC Santa Barbara shooting defense (34th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Pepperdine on paper, but Zoe Borter (14.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.1 ast, Game Score 10.1) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: UC Santa Barbara win 1,485 of 5,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

UCSB UC Santa Barbara

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

PEPP Pepperdine

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

UCSBPEPP
0-0Record1-0
+7.7 100Net rating+4.6 126
95.7 116Offensive rating96.3 105
88.0 95Defensive rating91.8 193
-0.8 279Strength of schedule-0.2 197
49.4% 68Effective FG%50.4% 46
42.3% 34Opponent eFG%43.6% 62
20.0 72Turnovers per 10022.9 179
22.9% 349Offensive rebound %28.2% 276
33.2% 743-point %34.0% 51
68.7 291Pace72.5 117

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Pepperdine 63 @ UC Santa Barbara 71Nov 10, 2022
  • UC Santa Barbara 74 @ Pepperdine 63Nov 20, 2021
  • Pepperdine 57 @ UC Santa Barbara 66Nov 15, 2016
  • UC Santa Barbara 69 @ Pepperdine 71Nov 29, 2015
  • Pepperdine 66 @ UC Santa Barbara 44Dec 12, 2014

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

UC Santa Barbara30%
70%Pepperdine

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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