- North Texas 1-0 · American 0-0, 3rd · W1
- San Diego State 1-0 · Pac-12 0-0, 4th · W1
Game day
Tip-offThe line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SDSU -8.1 |
| Total | n/a | 133.9 |
| Moneyline | n/a | UNT +292 SDSU -292 fair |
No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.
5,000 simulated games
- Typical score
- SDSU 79, UNT 71
- 8 in 10 games
- UNT by 9 to SDSU by 24
Advantages Why San Diego State can win
- Home court: San Diego State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to San Diego State in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): San Diego State 28th (18.3), North Texas 188th (23.1) of 363.
- Strength: San Diego State rank 10th of 363 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (74.7%).
- Team matchup: where San Diego State can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (25th of 363) meets the North Texas shooting defense (90th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. Pace clash: North Texas play fast (78th of 363 in pace), San Diego State slow (287th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
- Star matchup: no key position favors San Diego State, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Nala Williams (10.0 pts, 4.3 reb, 4.2 ast, Game Score 9.5) leading the way.
- Simulation: San Diego State win 3,725 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why San Diego State may not
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): North Texas 59th (35.8%), San Diego State 325th (25.3%) of 363.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: North Texas 104th (24.2), San Diego State 285th (20.0) of 363.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): North Texas 75th (0.23), San Diego State 297th (0.17) of 363.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations San Diego State lose by 9 or more.
- Team matchup: North Texas have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Megan Nestor (North Texas: 12.8 pts, 14.1 reb, 1.5 ast, Game Score 13.5) has the edge on Nala Williams (San Diego State: 10.0 pts, 4.3 reb, 4.2 ast, Game Score 9.5).
- Upset odds: North Texas win 1,275 of 5,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Who's out
UNT North Texas
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
SDSU San Diego State
- Nobody listed out or questionable.
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideRankings
| UNT | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| +7.0 107 | Net rating | +13.1 58 |
| 92.9 151 | Offensive rating | 101.2 50 |
| 85.9 51 | Defensive rating | 88.1 100 |
| +0.2 144 | Strength of schedule | -0.1 177 |
| 44.2% 217 | Effective FG% | 51.3% 25 |
| 44.0% 90 | Opponent eFG% | 43.5% 59 |
| 23.1 188 | Turnovers per 100 | 18.3 28 |
| 35.8% 59 | Offensive rebound % | 25.3% 325 |
| 33.3% 65 | 3-point % | 35.8% 16 |
| 73.7 78 | Pace | 68.7 287 |
Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
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