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CMU

Central Michigan @ #18 Ohio State

NCAAW · · Schottenstein Center

OSU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
OSUOhio State Buckeyes
95% to win
ModelCMU 5%OSU 95%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetOSU -19
Totaln/a142.8
Moneylinen/aCMU +1738
OSU -1738 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
OSU 84, CMU 66
8 in 10 games
OSU by 3 to OSU by 35
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Ohio State can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.3 points to Ohio State in our ratings.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Ohio State about 4.0 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Home court: Ohio State play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  4. Ohio State's offense (106.4 points per 100 possessions, 24th in Division I) meets a Central Michigan defense that ranks 190th.
  5. Team matchup: where Ohio State can take advantage. Their ball pressure (22nd of 363) meets the Central Michigan ball security (292nd), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (21st of 363) meets the Central Michigan shooting defense (202nd): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Jaloni Cambridge (Ohio State: 23.2 pts, 5.7 reb, 4.4 ast, Game Score 17.3) has the edge on Madi Morson (Central Michigan: 20.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 12.4).
  7. Simulation: Ohio State win 4,730 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Ohio State may not

  1. Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Central Michigan 57th (72.8%), Ohio State 203rd (67.9%) of 363.
  2. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Central Michigan 41st (0.24), Ohio State 216th (0.19) of 363.
  3. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  4. Who plays: women's college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
  5. Team matchup: where Central Michigan can push back. Their offensive rebounding (13th of 363) meets the Ohio State defensive rebounding (203rd), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Ohio State on paper, but Madi Morson (20.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 1.7 ast, Game Score 12.4) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Central Michigan win 270 of 5,000 simulations (5%). A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Who's out

CMU Central Michigan

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

OSU Ohio State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CMUOSU
0-1Record1-0
+4.0 130Net rating+20.7 21
95.7 115Offensive rating106.4 24
91.7 190Defensive rating85.7 48
-0.4 215Strength of schedule+3.0 18
46.7% 126Effective FG%51.6% 21
45.9% 202Opponent eFG%45.4% 176
25.4 292Turnovers per 10018.1 23
39.8% 13Offensive rebound %31.6% 175
34.4% 353-point %34.4% 36
73.0 102Pace76.4 25

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 1 meeting

  • Central Michigan 95 vs Ohio State 78Mar 19, 2018 · Postseason

What if?

Central Michigan5%
95%Ohio State

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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