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USM

Southern Miss @ Auburn

NCAAW · · Neville Arena

AUB

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
AUBAuburn Tigers
61% to win
ModelUSM 39%AUB 61%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetAUB -3.3
Totaln/a131.6
Moneylinen/aUSM +159
AUB -159 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
AUB 77, USM 73
8 in 10 games
USM by 12 to AUB by 20
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Auburn can win

  1. Home court: Auburn play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Auburn 18th (28.5), Southern Miss 286th (20.0) of 363.
  3. Auburn's offense (86.4 points per 100 possessions, 251st in Division I) meets a Southern Miss defense that ranks 318th.
  4. Strength of schedule: Auburn 37th (+2.4), Southern Miss 135th (+0.3) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Auburn can take advantage. Their offensive rebounding (229th of 363) meets the Southern Miss defensive rebounding (320th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: Southern Miss play fast (52nd of 363 in pace), Auburn slow (259th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: no key position favors Auburn, so they need their depth to beat the other side's stars, with Kaitlyn Duhon (9.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 0.8 ast, Game Score 8.4) leading the way.
  7. Simulation: Auburn win 3,070 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Auburn may not

  1. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Southern Miss about 2.8 points stronger over recent games.
  2. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Southern Miss 31st (18.5), Auburn 203rd (23.3) of 363.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Auburn lose by 12 or more.
  4. Three-point shooting: Southern Miss 182nd (30.4%), Auburn 306th (27.5%) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Southern Miss can push back. Their offensive rebounding (205th of 363) meets the Auburn defensive rebounding (299th), so look for them to crash the glass for second chances. And their shooting efficiency (174th of 363) meets the Auburn shooting defense (260th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Sakyia White (Southern Miss: 11.3 pts, 7.9 reb, 0.6 ast, Game Score 10.5) has the edge on Kaitlyn Duhon (Auburn: 9.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 0.8 ast, Game Score 8.4).
  7. Upset odds: Southern Miss win 1,930 of 5,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

USM Southern Miss

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

AUB Auburn

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

USMAUB
0-0Record1-0
-3.5 212Net rating-2.8 203
97.0 98Offensive rating86.4 251
100.5 318Defensive rating89.2 131
+0.3 135Strength of schedule+2.4 37
45.2% 174Effective FG%42.9% 269
47.9% 287Opponent eFG%47.1% 260
18.5 31Turnovers per 10023.3 203
30.6% 205Offensive rebound %30.0% 229
30.4% 1823-point %27.5% 306
74.6 52Pace69.5 259

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

These teams have not met since 2009.

What if?

Southern Miss39%
61%Auburn

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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