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TNST

Tennessee State @ William & Mary

NCAAW · · Kaplan Arena

W&M

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
W&MWilliam & Mary Tribe
86% to win
ModelTNST 14%W&M 86%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetW&M -12.3
Totaln/a132
Moneylinen/aTNST +631
W&M -631 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
W&M 81, TNST 69
8 in 10 games
TNST by 4 to W&M by 28
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why William & Mary can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to William & Mary in our ratings.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): William & Mary 176th (-0.5), Tennessee State 342nd (-22.0) of 363.
  3. Home court: William & Mary play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.6 points to William & Mary in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where William & Mary can take advantage. Their ball pressure (102nd of 363) meets the Tennessee State ball security (329th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (166th of 363) meets the Tennessee State defensive rebounding (292nd): a chance to crash the glass for second chances. Pace clash: Tennessee State play fast (51st of 363 in pace), William & Mary slow (285th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  6. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors William & Mary. The closest: best player against best player, Alexa Mikeska (William & Mary: 6.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 3.5 ast, Game Score 8.0) is about even with Erin Martin (Tennessee State: 8.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 7.0).
  7. Simulation: William & Mary win 4,315 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why William & Mary may not

  1. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations William & Mary lose by 4 or more.
  2. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Tennessee State 134th (0.21), William & Mary 318th (0.17) of 363.
  3. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Tennessee State about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
  4. Weak spot: William & Mary rank 318th of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
  5. Team matchup: Tennessee State have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean William & Mary on paper, but Erin Martin (8.6 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 7.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Tennessee State win 685 of 5,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

TNST Tennessee State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

W&M William & Mary

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

TNSTW&M
0-0Record0-0
-22.0 342Net rating-0.5 176
79.0 331Offensive rating87.6 236
100.9 324Defensive rating88.0 97
-0.7 262Strength of schedule-0.6 244
41.2% 313Effective FG%43.4% 247
48.7% 307Opponent eFG%42.9% 48
27.1 329Turnovers per 10022.6 166
29.1% 256Offensive rebound %31.8% 166
28.5% 2713-point %27.5% 305
74.7 51Pace68.8 285

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 2 meetings

  • William & Mary 64 @ Tennessee State 53Nov 29, 2025
  • William & Mary 63 vs Tennessee State 53Nov 24, 2023

What if?

Tennessee State14%
86%William & Mary

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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