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CLE

Cleveland State @ Bowling Green

NCAAW · · Stroh Center

BGSU

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
BGSUBowling Green Falcons
56% to win
ModelCLE 44%BGSU 55%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetBGSU -1.7
Totaln/a134.9
Moneylinen/aCLE +125
BGSU -125 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
BGSU 76, CLE 74
8 in 10 games
CLE by 14 to BGSU by 18
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Bowling Green can win

  1. Home court: Bowling Green play at home, worth about 3.5 points in women's college basketball.
  2. Strength of schedule: Bowling Green 175th (-0.0), Cleveland State 326th (-1.4) of 363.
  3. Strength: Bowling Green rank 34th of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.25).
  4. Strength: Bowling Green rank 52nd of 363 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (26.2).
  5. Team matchup: where Bowling Green can take advantage. Their ball pressure (52nd of 363) meets the Cleveland State ball security (220th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition.
  6. Star matchup: At forward, Lauren Gerken (Bowling Green: 9.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.1 ast, Game Score 7.1) has the edge on Madison Royal-Davis (Cleveland State: 2.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 4.3).
  7. Simulation: Bowling Green win 2,775 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Bowling Green may not

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to Cleveland State in our ratings.
  2. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cleveland State 80th (+9.9), Bowling Green 205th (-3.0) of 363.
  3. Cleveland State's offense (97.0 points per 100 possessions, 97th in Division I) meets a Bowling Green defense that ranks 197th.
  4. Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to Cleveland State in our ratings.
  5. Team matchup: where Cleveland State can push back. Their shooting efficiency (85th of 363) meets the Bowling Green shooting defense (250th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their offensive rebounding (154th of 363) meets the Bowling Green defensive rebounding (248th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Izabella Zingaro (Cleveland State: 16.9 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.0 ast, Game Score 12.8) has the edge on Paige Kohler (Bowling Green: 14.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 8.8).
  7. Upset odds: Cleveland State win 2,225 of 5,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Who's out

CLE Cleveland State

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

BGSU Bowling Green

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

CLEBGSU
1-0Record1-0
+9.9 80Net rating-3.0 205
97.0 97Offensive rating88.9 219
87.2 79Defensive rating91.9 197
-1.4 326Strength of schedule-0.0 175
48.5% 85Effective FG%43.6% 240
44.3% 108Opponent eFG%46.9% 250
23.6 220Turnovers per 10023.5 213
32.1% 154Offensive rebound %29.8% 239
29.5% 2263-point %28.5% 272
70.9 192Pace74.1 64

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 5 meetings

  • Bowling Green 68 @ Cleveland State 75Nov 12, 2024
  • Cleveland State 86 @ Bowling Green 89Nov 7, 2023
  • Cleveland State 62 @ Bowling Green 89Nov 6, 2019
  • Cleveland State 64 @ Bowling Green 56Dec 21, 2016
  • Bowling Green 48 @ Cleveland State 69Dec 5, 2015

What if?

Cleveland State44%
56%Bowling Green

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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