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NKU

Northern Kentucky @ #14 Kentucky

NCAAW · · Memorial Coliseum (KY)

UK

Game day

Tip-off

Our pick
UKKentucky Wildcats
95% to win
ModelNKU 5%UK 95%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetUK -18.5
Totaln/a136.5
Moneylinen/aNKU +1794
UK -1794 fair

No betting line posted yet. Sportsbooks post lines for many women's college games only on game day, and smaller-conference games often get none at all. We add it as soon as one posts.

5,000 simulated games

Typical score
UK 84, NKU 66
8 in 10 games
UK by 3 to UK by 34
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Kentucky can win

  1. Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to Kentucky in our ratings.
  2. Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Kentucky about 4.0 points stronger over recent games.
  3. Kentucky's offense (107.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in Division I) meets a Northern Kentucky defense that ranks 271st.
  4. Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Kentucky 19th (+21.0), Northern Kentucky 191st (-1.9) of 363.
  5. Team matchup: where Kentucky can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (32nd of 363) meets the Northern Kentucky shooting defense (280th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: Best player against best player, Clara Strack (Kentucky: 16.9 pts, 10.1 reb, 1.9 ast, Game Score 14.7) has the edge on Mya Meredith (Northern Kentucky: 10.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 7.7); at forward, Teonni Key (Kentucky: 11.4 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.2 ast, Game Score 9.6) has the edge on Abby Wolterman (Northern Kentucky: 6.4 pts, 6.0 reb, 0.7 ast, Game Score 5.4).
  7. Simulation: Kentucky win 4,735 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Kentucky may not

  1. Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Northern Kentucky 74th (0.23), Kentucky 253rd (0.18) of 363.
  2. Weak spot: Kentucky rank 312th of 363 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (19.4).
  3. Weak spot: Kentucky rank 253rd of 363 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
  4. Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
  5. Team matchup: a strength Kentucky may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (66th of 363) meets the Northern Kentucky defensive rebounding (77th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean Kentucky on paper, but Mya Meredith (10.6 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.0 ast, Game Score 7.7) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Northern Kentucky win 265 of 5,000 simulations (5%). A 95% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Team news

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Each headline links to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

NKU Northern Kentucky

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

UK Kentucky

  • Nobody listed out or questionable.

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideRankings

NKUUK
0-0Record1-0
-1.9 191Net rating+21.0 19
94.3 140Offensive rating107.1 20
96.2 271Defensive rating86.1 54
+0.3 129Strength of schedule+3.4 13
44.9% 186Effective FG%51.0% 32
47.7% 280Opponent eFG%42.1% 30
21.3 114Turnovers per 10018.6 36
31.7% 170Offensive rebound %35.5% 66
29.5% 2283-point %32.8% 85
72.6 115Pace70.2 231

Small numbers are ranks among 363 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).

Last 3 meetings

  • Northern Kentucky 41 @ Kentucky 70Nov 7, 2024
  • Kentucky 84 @ Northern Kentucky 65Dec 2, 2015
  • Northern Kentucky 64 @ Kentucky 82Dec 3, 2014

What if?

Northern Kentucky5%
95%Kentucky

Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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