- Arizona Cardinals 3-5 · 12th in the NFC · 4th in the NFC West · W1
- Seattle Seahawks 4-4 · 8th in the NFC · 2nd in the NFC West · L1
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SEA -11.5 | Same |
| Total | 44.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | ARI +490 SEA -675 | ARI +539 SEA -539 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.5 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 11th (+3.2), Cardinals 29th (-7.9).
- Team matchup: where the Seahawks can take advantage. Their passing game (19th of 32) meets the Cardinals pass defense (31st), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks: 123 receiving yards a game, 9 TD) has the edge on Trey McBride (Cardinals: 68, 5 TD), facing the Cardinals pass defense (31st of 32).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Seahawks 84% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Division game: these teams play twice a year and know each other, which tends to tighten the margin.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Seahawks rank 28th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 12th (5.7%), Seahawks 20th (6.8%).
- Team matchup: where the Cardinals can push back. Their pass rush (11th of 32) meets the Seahawks pass protection (20th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Gardner Minshew (Cardinals: +0.60 EPA per dropback, 1st of 33) has the edge on Sam Darnold (Seahawks: -0.07, 25th); in the backfield, Tyler Allgeier (Cardinals: 40 rushing yards a game, 4.5 a carry) has the edge on George Holani (Seahawks: 15, 3.2; filling in for Emanuel Wilson, missed the last game), facing the Seahawks run defense (16th of 32).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 1,570 of 10,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| ARI | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 4-4 |
| 21.9 21 | Points per game | 23.1 15 |
| 29.8 32 | Points allowed | 19.9 7 |
| -0.02 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.08 5 |
| +0.0 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 17 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 6.8% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | SEA 31 @ ARI 7 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | ARI 22 @ SEA 44 | SEA | SEA -7 |
| 2025-09-25 | 2025 Wk 4 | SEA 23 @ ARI 20 | SEA | SEA -1.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | SEA 30 @ ARI 18 | SEA | ARI -3 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | ARI 6 @ SEA 16 | SEA | ARI -1 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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