- Buffalo Bills 6-1 · 1st in the AFC · 1st in the AFC East · W3
- Minnesota Vikings 6-1 · 2nd in the NFC · 1st in the NFC North · L1
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -3.5 | Same |
| Total | 46.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | BUF -185 MIN +154 | BUF -175 MIN +175 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 2.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +10.7, Vikings +4.0.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.1), Vikings 22nd (3.1).
- Team matchup: where the Bills can take advantage. Their running game (2nd of 32) meets the Vikings run defense (11th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Josh Allen (Bills: +0.27 EPA per dropback, 4th of 33) has the edge on Kyler Murray (Vikings: -0.06, 23rd); in the backfield, James Cook (Bills: 101 rushing yards a game, 5.1 a carry) has the edge on Aaron Jones (Vikings: 65, 4.2), facing the Vikings run defense (11th of 32).
- The betting market agrees: Bills 62% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.0), Bills 22nd (-0.3).
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Penalty yards per game: Vikings rank 3rd (44.9), Bills 32nd (75.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 13 or more.
- Team matchup: where the Vikings can push back. Their pass rush (1st of 32) meets the Bills pass protection (13th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Bills on paper, but quarterback Kyler Murray (1,022 yards, 5 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Vikings win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| BUF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 6-1 |
| 33.3 1 | Points per game | 20.0 27 |
| 25.9 24 | Points allowed | 13.3 1 |
| +0.18 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 28 |
| +0.06 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.17 1 |
| -0.3 22 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 1 |
| 5.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 11.0% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | MIN 33 @ BUF 30 | MIN | BUF -6.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | BUF 27 @ MIN 6 | BUF | MIN -16.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | MIN 16 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2010-12-05 | 2010 Wk 13 | BUF 14 @ MIN 38 | MIN | MIN -5 |
| 2006-10-01 | 2006 Wk 4 | MIN 12 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -1 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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