- Cincinnati Bengals 5-2 · 6th in the AFC · 2nd in the AFC North · W3
- Atlanta Falcons 3-5 · 11th in the NFC · 3rd in the NFC South · L1
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | CIN -3 | Same |
| Total | 52.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | CIN -162 ATL +136 | CIN -162 ATL +162 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 3.5 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +12.0, Falcons -5.0.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.9), Falcons 21st (-2.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where the Bengals can take advantage. Their pass rush (3rd of 32) meets the Falcons pass protection (19th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their passing game (5th of 32) meets the Falcons pass defense (16th): a chance to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Joe Burrow (Bengals: +0.24 EPA per dropback, 6th of 33) has the edge on Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons: +0.02, 19th); off the edge, Boye Mafe (Bengals: 5.5 sacks) has the edge on Samson Ebukam (Falcons: 2.5; filling in for Za'Darius Smith, missed the last game), facing the Falcons pass protection (19th of 32).
- The betting market agrees: Bengals 59% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.7).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 27th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.11).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 22nd in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.02).
- Team matchup: where the Falcons can push back. Their big-play offense (13th of 32) meets the Bengals defense against big plays (31st), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays. And their running game (11th of 32) meets the Bengals run defense (22nd): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Bijan Robinson (Falcons: 98 rushing yards a game, 5.2 a carry) has the edge on Chase Brown (Bengals: 49, 3.6), facing the Bengals run defense (22nd of 32).
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,820 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| CIN | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-5 |
| 29.4 2 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 22.6 14 | Points allowed | 23.6 17 |
| +0.12 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.1 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 29 |
| 8.7% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 5.9% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | ATL 17 @ CIN 35 | CIN | CIN -6.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | CIN 37 @ ATL 36 | CIN | ATL -3.5 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | ATL 10 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -5.5 |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 Wk 7 | CIN 32 @ ATL 39 | ATL | ATL -3.5 |
| 2006-10-29 | 2006 Wk 8 | ATL 29 @ CIN 27 | ATL | CIN -3.5 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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