- Cleveland Browns 5-3 · 8th in the AFC · 3rd in the AFC North · L1
- New Orleans Saints 2-5 · 15th in the NFC · 4th in the NFC South · L1
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NO -2.5 | Same |
| Total | 43.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | CLE +120 NO -142 | CLE +136 NO -136 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Rest: Saints have 14 days since their last game, Browns 7.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 10th (5.2%), Browns 32nd (11.6%).
- Team matchup: where the Saints can take advantage. Their pass rush (10th of 32) meets the Browns pass protection (32nd), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: Off the edge, Chase Young (Saints: 7 sacks) has the edge on Mason Graham (Browns: 4), facing the Browns pass protection (32nd of 32); at receiver, Chris Olave (Saints: 91 receiving yards a game, 2 TD) has the edge on Harold Fannin Jr. (Browns: 51, 3 TD), facing the Browns pass defense (9th of 32).
- The betting market agrees: Saints 56% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 17th (-0.1), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Saints rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.03).
- Weak spot: Saints rank 29th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
- Team matchup: where the Browns can push back. Their big-play offense (13th of 32) meets the Saints defense against big plays (28th), so look for them to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Quinshon Judkins (Browns: 43 rushing yards a game, 3.4 a carry) has the edge on Kendre Miller (Saints: 23, 2.8), facing the Saints run defense (29th of 32).
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,230 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| CLE | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 17.4 29 | Points per game | 23.1 14 |
| 21.6 13 | Points allowed | 27.7 29 |
| -0.06 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 27 |
| -0.1 17 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | CLE 14 @ NO 35 | NO | CLE -1 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | NO 17 @ CLE 10 | NO | CLE -3 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | CLE 18 @ NO 21 | NO | NO -10 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | NO 24 @ CLE 26 | CLE | NO -4.5 |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 Wk 7 | CLE 30 @ NO 17 | CLE | NO -12 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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