- Detroit Lions 5-2 · 6th in the NFC · 3rd in the NFC North · W3
- Miami Dolphins 1-6 · 14th in the AFC · 4th in the AFC East · L1
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DET -7 | Same |
| Total | 50.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | DET -360 MIA +285 | DET -278 MIA +278 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 6.2 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 10th (+3.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +10.3, Dolphins -3.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Lions in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where the Lions can take advantage. Their passing game (4th of 32) meets the Dolphins pass defense (32nd), so look for them to throw early and often. And their pass rush (8th of 32) meets the Dolphins pass protection (31st): a chance to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Jared Goff (Lions: +0.27 EPA per dropback, 5th of 33) has the edge on Malik Willis (Dolphins: -0.07, 24th); in the backfield, Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions: 110 rushing yards a game, 4.9 a carry) has the edge on Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins: 58, 4.5), facing the Dolphins run defense (7th of 32).
- Simulation: Lions win 7,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.4).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 30th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.09).
- Team matchup: where the Dolphins can push back. Their running game (9th of 32) meets the Lions run defense (18th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock. And their big-play offense (23rd of 32) meets the Lions defense against big plays (32nd): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Lions on paper, but quarterback Malik Willis (1,268 yards, 6 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,650 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| DET | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 29.0 3 | Points per game | 16.7 31 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 25.9 24 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.09 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 31 |
| +0.4 10 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 24 |
| 7.7% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | MIA 31 @ DET 27 | MIA | MIA -3.5 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | DET 32 @ MIA 21 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2014-11-09 | 2014 Wk 10 | MIA 16 @ DET 20 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2010-12-26 | 2010 Wk 16 | DET 34 @ MIA 27 | DET | MIA -3.5 |
| 2006-11-23 | 2006 Wk 12 | MIA 27 @ DET 10 | MIA | MIA -3 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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