- Green Bay Packers 5-3 · 7th in the NFC · 4th in the NFC North · W1
- New England Patriots 5-3 · 7th in the AFC · 2nd in the AFC East · W1
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NE -3 | Same |
| Total | 46.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | GB +130 NE -155 | GB +149 NE -149 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Penalty yards per game: Patriots rank 15th (59.2), Packers 31st (73.9).
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors the Patriots. The nearest thing to one: their pass rush (5th of 32) meets the Packers pass protection (7th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots: 46 rushing yards a game, 3.8 a carry) has the edge on MarShawn Lloyd (Packers: 19, 2.6), facing the Packers run defense (13th of 32); at quarterback, Drake Maye (Patriots: +0.21 EPA per dropback, 7th of 33) has the edge on Jordan Love (Packers: +0.14, 11th).
- The betting market agrees: Patriots 58% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 7th (+0.5), Patriots 31st (-0.9).
- Rest: Packers have 10 days since their last game, Patriots 7.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-0.9).
- Team matchup: where the Packers can push back. Their passing game (11th of 32) meets the Patriots pass defense (21st), so look for them to throw early and often. And their big-play offense (3rd of 32) meets the Patriots defense against big plays (10th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At receiver, Christian Watson (Packers: 88 receiving yards a game, 6 TD) has the edge on DeMario Douglas (Patriots: 42, 4 TD), facing the Patriots pass defense (21st of 32).
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,020 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
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Side by side
| GB | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 23.0 16 |
| 20.5 10 | Points allowed | 20.2 9 |
| +0.01 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.08 8 |
| -0.06 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.02 18 |
| +0.5 7 | Turnover margin/game | -0.9 31 |
| 7.2% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | NE 24 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -10 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | GB 17 @ NE 31 | NE | NE -5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | NE 21 @ GB 26 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2010-12-19 | 2010 Wk 15 | GB 27 @ NE 31 | NE | NE -14 |
| 2006-11-19 | 2006 Wk 11 | NE 35 @ GB 0 | NE | NE -5.5 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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