- Houston Texans 2-5 · 11th in the AFC · 2nd in the AFC South · L1
- Los Angeles Chargers 0-7 · 16th in the AFC · 4th in the AFC West · L7
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -4.5 | Same |
| Total | 40.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | HOU -198 LAC +164 | HOU -196 LAC +196 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Chargers -12.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 2.2 points stronger.
- Team matchup: where the Texans can take advantage. Their pass rush (6th of 32) meets the Chargers pass protection (28th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws. And their big-play offense (5th of 32) meets the Chargers defense against big plays (11th): a chance to take shots downfield for chunk plays.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, C.J. Stroud (Texans: +0.12 EPA per dropback, 13th of 33) has the edge on Justin Herbert (Chargers: -0.26, 33rd); off the edge, Will Anderson Jr. (Texans: 7.5 sacks) has the edge on Khalil Mack (Chargers: 3), facing the Chargers pass protection (28th of 32).
- Simulation: Texans win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Texans 64% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Texans cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Texans rank 29th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
- Team matchup: the Chargers have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through turnovers, special teams and a few big plays.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Texans on paper, but quarterback Justin Herbert (1,398 yards, 5 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| HOU | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-7 |
| 23.6 12 | Points per game | 14.1 32 |
| 24.3 18 | Points allowed | 25.0 20 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.24 32 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 8 |
| +0.4 10 | Turnover margin/game | -0.9 30 |
| 7.9% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | 2025 Wk 17 | HOU 20 @ LAC 16 | HOU | LAC -1.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024 Wild Card | LAC 12 @ HOU 32 | HOU | LAC -3 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | LAC 34 @ HOU 24 | LAC | LAC -5.5 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | LAC 29 @ HOU 41 | HOU | LAC -13.5 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | HOU 27 @ LAC 20 | HOU | LAC -3 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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