- Las Vegas Raiders 4-4 · 9th in the AFC · 3rd in the AFC West · W1
- San Francisco 49ers 6-1 · 1st in the NFC · 1st in the NFC West · L1
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SF -10 | Same |
| Total | 51.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | LV +410 SF -550 | LV +401 SF -401 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 3.9 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 2nd (+8.3), Raiders 19th (-1.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where the 49ers can take advantage. Their passing game (1st of 32) meets the Raiders pass defense (29th), so look for them to throw early and often. And their running game (1st of 32) meets the Raiders run defense (21st): a chance to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Brock Purdy (49ers: +0.29 EPA per dropback, 1st of 33) has the edge on Kirk Cousins (Raiders: +0.19, 8th); in the backfield, Christian McCaffrey (49ers: 56 rushing yards a game, 4.6 a carry) has the edge on Ashton Jeanty (Raiders: 42, 3.1), facing the Raiders run defense (21st of 32).
- Simulation: 49ers win 8,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: 49ers 81% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), 49ers 24th (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 29th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
- Field goal percentage: Raiders rank 10th (90.0%), 49ers 29th (66.7%).
- Team matchup: where the Raiders can push back. Their passing game (7th of 32) meets the 49ers pass defense (17th), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the 49ers on paper, but quarterback Kirk Cousins (2,124 yards, 19 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,000 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
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Side by side
| LV | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 6-1 |
| 27.6 6 | Points per game | 28.1 4 |
| 28.8 31 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.01 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 1 |
| +0.08 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 9 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 24 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | SF 37 @ LV 34 | SF | SF -10 |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 Wk 9 | LV 3 @ SF 34 | SF | LV -1.5 |
| 2014-12-07 | 2014 Wk 14 | SF 13 @ LV 24 | LV | SF -8 |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 Wk 6 | LV 9 @ SF 17 | SF | SF -9 |
| 2006-10-08 | 2006 Wk 5 | LV 20 @ SF 34 | SF | SF -3 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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