- New York Jets 2-6 · 12th in the AFC · 3rd in the AFC East · L3
- Kansas City Chiefs 5-2 · 5th in the AFC · 2nd in the AFC West · L2
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | KC -9.5 | Same |
| Total | 46.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | NYJ +370 KC -485 | NYJ +375 KC -375 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 4.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 7th (+5.1), Jets 21st (-2.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where the Chiefs can take advantage. Their passing game (12th of 32) meets the Jets pass defense (26th), so look for them to throw early and often.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs: 110 rushing yards a game, 5.5 a carry) has the edge on Braelon Allen (Jets: 71, 5.0), facing the Jets run defense (4th of 32).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 7,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Chiefs 80% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 7th (7.7%), Chiefs 32nd (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 32nd in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 29th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
- Team matchup: a strength the Chiefs may not get to use. Their running game (3rd of 32) meets the Jets run defense (4th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Chiefs on paper, but quarterback Geno Smith (1,913 yards, 12 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,110 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| NYJ | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 21.2 25 | Points per game | 23.9 11 |
| 23.5 16 | Points allowed | 18.7 4 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 5 |
| +0.02 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.2 12 | Turnover margin/game | +0.7 4 |
| 7.7% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | KC 23 @ NYJ 20 | KC | KC -9.5 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | NYJ 9 @ KC 35 | KC | KC -20 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | KC 31 @ NYJ 38 | NYJ | KC -3.5 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | NYJ 3 @ KC 24 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2014-11-02 | 2014 Wk 9 | NYJ 10 @ KC 24 | KC | KC -9.5 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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