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NYJ

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs

NFL 2026 · Week 9 · · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

KC
Standings

Game day

Kickoff

Inactives

Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
79% to win
Model
Market

Within 1 pts of the market. Not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
SpreadKC -9.5Same
Total46.5Same
MoneylineNYJ +370
KC -485
NYJ +375
KC -375 fair

Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.

10,000 simulated games

KC 27, NYJ 17Typical score
NYJ by 6 to KC by 278 in 10 games
49%KC covers -9.5
48%Over 46.5
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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What if?

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21%Jets
79%Chiefs

Our number.

Advantages Why the Chiefs can win

  1. Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 4.5 points stronger.
  2. Point differential per game: Chiefs rank 7th (+5.1), Jets 21st (-2.2).
  3. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Chiefs in our ratings.
  4. Team matchup: where the Chiefs can take advantage. Their passing game (12th of 32) meets the Jets pass defense (26th), so look for them to throw early and often.
  5. Star matchup: In the backfield, Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs: 110 rushing yards a game, 5.5 a carry) has the edge on Braelon Allen (Jets: 71, 5.0), facing the Jets run defense (4th of 32).
  6. Simulation: Chiefs win 7,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
  7. The betting market agrees: Chiefs 80% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.

Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not

  1. Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 7th (7.7%), Chiefs 32nd (3.2%).
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 6 or more.
  3. Weak spot: Chiefs rank 32nd in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
  4. Weak spot: Chiefs rank 29th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
  5. Team matchup: a strength the Chiefs may not get to use. Their running game (3rd of 32) meets the Jets run defense (4th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to lean on the run and control the clock.
  6. Star matchup: the key positions lean the Chiefs on paper, but quarterback Geno Smith (1,913 yards, 12 TD) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
  7. Upset odds: Jets win 2,110 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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Side by side

NYJKC
2-6Record5-2
21.2 25Points per game23.9 11
23.5 16Points allowed18.7 4
+0.04 11Offense EPA/play+0.11 5
+0.02 17Defense EPA/play allowed-0.03 10
+0.2 12Turnover margin/game+0.7 4
7.7% 7Sacks per dropback3.2% 32

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).

Last 5 meetings

DateGameScoreWinnerClosing line
2023-10-012023 Wk 4KC 23 @ NYJ 20KCKC -9.5
2020-11-012020 Wk 8NYJ 9 @ KC 35KCKC -20
2017-12-032017 Wk 13KC 31 @ NYJ 38NYJKC -3.5
2016-09-252016 Wk 3NYJ 3 @ KC 24KCKC -3
2014-11-022014 Wk 9NYJ 10 @ KC 24KCKC -9.5

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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