- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-5 · 10th in the NFC · 2nd in the NFC South · W2
- Chicago Bears 6-2 · 5th in the NFC · 2nd in the NFC North · W3
Game day
KickoffWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | CHI -6 | Same |
| Total | 46.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | TB +210 CHI -258 | TB +225 CHI -225 fair |
Line: our last refresh, nflverse. Odds move; check a sportsbook before acting.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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What if?
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Our number.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 1.8 points stronger.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Buccaneers 25th (2.9).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Team matchup: where the Bears can take advantage. Their pass rush (2nd of 32) meets the Buccaneers pass protection (30th), so look for them to pressure the quarterback into hurried throws.
- Star matchup: At quarterback, Caleb Williams (Bears: +0.29 EPA per dropback, 2nd of 33) has the edge on Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers: -0.25, 32nd); off the edge, Jeffery Simmons (Bears: 5 sacks) has the edge on A'Shawn Robinson (Buccaneers: 1; filling in for David Walker, missed the last game), facing the Buccaneers pass protection (30th of 32).
- Simulation: Bears win 6,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The betting market agrees: Bears 69% to win after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 7th (+0.5), Bears 17th (-0.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 10 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Buccaneers rank 1st (100.0%), Bears 23rd (76.5%).
- Penalty yards per game: Buccaneers rank 7th (50.5), Bears 19th (62.0).
- Team matchup: where the Buccaneers can push back. Their running game (6th of 32) meets the Bears run defense (19th), so look for them to lean on the run and control the clock.
- Star matchup: In the backfield, Bucky Irving (Buccaneers: 91 rushing yards a game, 5.0 a carry) has the edge on D'Andre Swift (Bears: 68, 3.8), facing the Bears run defense (19th of 32).
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,070 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
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Side by side
| TB | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 6-2 |
| 22.2 20 | Points per game | 26.8 8 |
| 18.9 5 | Points allowed | 20.0 8 |
| -0.09 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 9 |
| -0.16 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 13 |
| +0.5 7 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 17 |
| 5.6% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 8.8% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | CHI 17 @ TB 27 | TB | TB -2.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | CHI 3 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -12.5 |
| 2020-10-08 | 2020 Wk 5 | TB 19 @ CHI 20 | CHI | TB -3.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | TB 10 @ CHI 48 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | CHI 7 @ TB 29 | TB | TB -7 |
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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